Good Morning, Well we got the last minute budget deal that we anticipated this weekend. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden came up with a compromised budget that included some of the spending cuts that the Republicans were demanding. The key word here is “some’. President Biden described the budget in this way. He said that not everyone gets everything they want in a compromise. Here in lies the issue. The far left progressive Democrats do not like the bill and neither do the far right republicans. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy must still sell this compromise to their respective parties in congress. While I think the bill will pass, it will probably not pass without a little drama and drama creates doubt. One thing we all know the market does not like and that’s doubt. So don’t expect the market to go straight up from here with no issues. The far right and the far left will clash on this budget. However, I believe that they will pass it in the end. Why? Because they have to. That’s why! The majority of investors think that the market will go straight up from here. No doubt, there will be a relief rally, but I do not believe it will last. Once this issue is resolved the market will refocus on the long term issues that have plagued us for the past 18 months or so. Inflation and Interest rates. Invest0rs will refocus on the Fed and their policy to control inflation. At each meeting there will continue to be doubt about whether or not the Fed will increase rates and then when it is obvious that they are finished increasing rates investors will focus on when rates will start to decrease. Let me make this simple for you. Until the rate of inflation stabilizes at 2 percent and interest rates return to prepandemic levels, there will continue to be doubt. Folks, there is a reason that doubt and dip both start with a D!! It has always been our thought here that a new bull market will not start until rates are stabilized at these levels. Currently, We remain invested in the G Fund. I know that it’s tempting to chase equities higher today as they will surely have a reaction rally to the budget agreement, but we must remain cognizant that there is still some substantial downside risk. What will the market do when all the political drama is over and it refocuses on the issues we discussed above? It will continue to slog it out. It will not get better in one day. It will take time. It took time for these conditions to develop and it will take time for them to go away. In simple terms, this is not a sprint. It is a marathon. Let that sink in. This market requires patience. As I have said and said and will say again. This is not the market of the past stimulus filled decade. So those of you that started trading during that time or those of you who have became used to those conditions in which the market simply continued to move higher with no major selloffs must come to realize that the market will require same patience as that it did before all the stimulus. The days of stimulus filled instant gratification are over…… Our strategy will now be to watch our charts for a good entry point back into equities. That may come in a week or it may be a matter of months. We just can’t say. Either way, we will remain patient and focus on protecting our precious capital first. There will be plenty of time to get back into the market when a new bull market begins. No hurry!!



The days trading has so far generated the following results. Our TSP allotment remains steady in the G Fund. For comparison, the Dow is off -0.23%, the Nasdaq is trading higher at +0.68%, and the S&P 500 is up +0.16%. So far not what we expected given the tentative budget agreement, but the day is still young.



S&P 500 rises as lawmakers reach tentative debt ceiling deal, Nvidia hits $1 trillion market cap: Live updates

The most recent action has left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/G. Our allocation is now -2.14% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:



05/26/23 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 17.5004 18.4739 64.9565 64.4145 37.1748
$ Change 0.0018 0.0125 0.8409 0.9306 0.3524
% Change day +0.01% +0.07% +1.31% +1.47% +0.96%
% Change week +0.07% -0.57% +0.34% +0.30% -1.98%
% Change month +0.26% -2.21% +1.02% +1.11% -1.99%
% Change year +1.54% +1.46% +10.27% +4.69% +9.52%

More Prices & Returns


 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.  
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Our task now is to watch our charts closely for a good entry point into equities. It is true that we currently have buy signals for the C and S Funds, but I would really like to see a meaningful pullback before I risk my precious capital. I consider the current buy signals to be weak as the charts for he C and S Funds are both up against major resistance. I would simply like to see a better entry point before I buy back in. That’s all for today. Have a great afternoon and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.










  • 09/26/2023

    Good Evening, Let’s get one thing out of the way. We do have a sell signal in all our equity based funds and that of course includes the C Fund. However, price is not the only thing that we watch. We have several indicators such as the Williams %R, the RSI, and the KDJ to…

  • 09/18/2023

    Good Evening, This week the market is marking time while it waits for the Fed meeting. We have  the Fed meeting on the heels of a slightly hot CPI report late last week. The media has been having a field day with that. The thing worth noting about the CPI is that while it was…

  • 09/12/2023

    Good Morning, The only consistency that this market has is inconsistency. They say that there’s nothing new under the sun and that is true when it comes to the inflation and interest rates, but I would argue that’s not the case with regard to computer algorithm trading. It is indeed new and the effect that…