05/02/18

Good Evening, The market struggled most of the day then sold off in the afternoon to close well in the red. China trade woes were quoted by the media as the reason but I have other concerns. In my humble opinion the market should have risen not fallen. Here are my thoughts. Apple which is one of the largest stocks by market cap and carries the most weight in a lot of indexes reported a surprise earnings beat and announced a huge stock buy back. Good news?? Well yeah!!!! The market usually rises and falls on Apple news alone as it did a few weeks back when it was reported that Apple suppliers were reporting a drop in the demand for cell phone components. What did the market do then? It sold off in a rather dramatic fashion. The reports of Apple’s demise were premature to say the least.  Next you have the Fed which didn’t raise interest rates and issued a pretty benign report. If a good report from Apple and non threatening Fed can’t spur the market then what can? I have serious concerns about this action and I’m saying it. I don’t mean to speak negatively but I must call it like I see it. I will add that doesn’t lesson my faith in God’s guidance of our group. Nonetheless, we must raise our level of caution when we observe that things are not behaving in a positive way. Earnings season is starting to slow down, negative seasonality is upon us and the market can’t even rally on good news???  There is reason to be concerned.  This was not a positive day!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was flat at -0.01%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.72%, the Nasdaq -0.42%, and the S&P 500 -0.72%. Praise God for protecting us from today’s selling!

 

Wall Street loses gains from Fed decision on China trade worries

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now -0.10% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

05/01/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.6791 17.6814 37.5569 48.8219 30.9218
$ Change 0.0012 -0.0403 0.0955 0.1674 -0.2130
% Change day +0.01% -0.23% +0.25% +0.34% -0.68%
% Change week +0.03% -0.13% -0.56% -0.45% -0.61%
% Change month +0.01% -0.23% +0.25% +0.34% -0.68%
% Change year +0.89% -2.39% -0.14% +0.73% +0.21%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.6701 27.0197 30.8301 33.5464 19.4224
$ Change -0.0022 -0.0042 -0.0068 -0.0082 -0.0047
% Change day -0.01% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02%
% Change week -0.10% -0.18% -0.34% -0.41% -0.46%
% Change month -0.01% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02% -0.02%
% Change year +0.61% +0.48% +0.31% +0.20% +0.13%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated an overall Neutral signal when the MACD moved into a negative configuration along with Price which was already in a negative configuration with it’s 5 EMA below it’s 50 EMA.
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Your level of vigilance should be raised at this point. Neutral signals mean that a chart can move in either direction. You need to have a game plan in place for either scenario. Keep praying, God has always been with our group and he still is today! Have a nice evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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