05/18/18

Good Evening, The market stumbled along today in a boring session while it waited for clarity on the Chinese Trade Issue (The 2nd of the three T’s). However, Small caps which are immune to the Trade/Tariff  issues continued to rise with the Russell 2000 setting another record high. One thing you must be aware of, especially since we have a heavy exposure to small caps in the S Fund, is that stocks tend to move together. This kind of bifurcated action is somewhat of a rarity. What you have to understand about this is that eventually large caps and small caps will equalize. So there will be a period of time where small caps move sideways and consolidate their gains while large caps move up to join them or they will sell off until they move down to the level of large caps. I believe it will be the former and not the latter but that is only a guess. Either way though, in the end they will equal out. My plan as always is to react to what I see on my charts. My former statement is only speculation based on current market conditions and past experience. I would never make an investment decision based on that. A contingency plan yes, a preemptive decision no…….

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment out performed yet again posting a small gain of +0.07%. For comparison, the Dow was flat at +0.00%, the Nasdaq dropped -0.38%, and the S&P 500 lost -0.26%. Praise God for giving our group another good day!

 

Wall Street posts weekly loss as banks, chipmakers weigh

The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +3.99% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

05/17/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.6988 17.5877 38.5448 50.8205 31.3693
$ Change 0.0013 -0.0140 -0.0221 0.1812 0.1437
% Change day +0.01% -0.08% -0.06% +0.36% +0.46%
% Change week +0.05% -0.67% -0.21% +0.63% -0.36%
% Change month +0.13% -0.76% +2.89% +4.45% +0.75%
% Change year +1.02% -2.91% +2.48% +4.86% +1.66%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.7795 27.2558 31.3009 34.1519 19.8225
$ Change 0.0063 0.0143 0.0299 0.0394 0.0268
% Change day +0.03% +0.05% +0.10% +0.12% +0.14%
% Change week -0.03% -0.06% -0.11% -0.12% -0.13%
% Change month +0.54% +0.86% +1.50% +1.78% +2.04%
% Change year +1.17% +1.36% +1.84% +2.01% +2.20%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
Our plan now is to ride the S Fund as far as it will take us. That’s all for this week and praise God it’s been a good one! Have a great weekend and I’ll see you on Monday.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 09/08/25

    Good Morning, The train left the station after Fridays jobs report. That may have well been the bottom of the current dip. It is now highly likely that the Fed will reduce rates on Sept 17th. More on that later. Right now lets focus on our trains next stop which will be Wednesdays Producer Price…

  • 09/01/25

    Good Afternoon, Happy Labor Day! I hope this note finds you enjoying some fine cuisine fresh off the grill! Well here we are starting a new month. The dreaded month of September. The weakest month for the stock market since the 20’s and here we are 100% invested in equities. What gives? First of all…

  • 08/24/2024

    Good Afternoon, We talked last week about Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming being a possible inflection point for the market and that’s exactly what it ended up being. The Fed chairman gave a somewhat dovish address in which he noted that  “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting…