Good Evening,
The lack of FED money to fuel the market is finally taking it’s toll. The media will point to today’s poor retail reports, but the real culprit is the FED money or should I say lack of it….. There’s just not enough left to fuel another escape for the trapped bulls….
Retail havoc drives Dow down 138
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Sell, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.07% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/19/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.416 | 16.3293 | 24.5524 | 33.6475 | 26.1806 |
| $ Change | 0.0029 | -0.0088 | 0.0959 | 0.2800 | -0.0520 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.05% | +0.39% | +0.84% | -0.20% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.05% | +0.39% | +0.84% | -0.20% |
| % Change month | +0.12% | +0.73% | +0.24% | -0.24% | +0.13% |
| % Change year | +0.90% | +3.73% | +2.84% | -0.07% | +2.41% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.0517 | 22.1989 | 23.9316 | 25.3538 | 14.3683 |
| $ Change | 0.0126 | 0.0347 | 0.0491 | 0.0624 | 0.0387 |
| % Change day | +0.07% | +0.16% | +0.21% | +0.25% | +0.27% |
| % Change week | +0.07% | +0.16% | +0.21% | +0.25% | +0.27% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | +0.16% | +0.16% | +0.15% | +0.13% |
| % Change year | +1.40% | +1.85% | +2.01% | +2.09% | +2.17% |
Today’s S&P 500 close of 1879.03 leaves us firmly in the trading zone between 1840 and 1890 that we have been observing since February. As I have repeatedly noted, nothing in this market will change until the price breaks out of that zone. Also, as I have previously said, there is a lot more room to run down than up. Down is the resolution that I favor with the wind of negative seasonality and less Fed money at our back.
Here’s what the SPY looked like today:
Volume was below average, but we could be seeing it dwindle with the holiday coming up this Monday. The PMO had a negative crossover, as we suspected it would yesterday. It’s still far too noisy to use it as a reliable gauge of momentum
Our plan for the summer remains unchanged. We will play defense until we get enough of a correction to create a decent re-entry point into the equity market. I won’t paint a false picture for you though, it looks like it will be choppy for the foreseeable future. That’ s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades.
Scott
