Good Evening, The market traded sideways today as it waits for the next market moving event. It’s all about the Fed this week. The FOMC meets tomorrow and concludes their meeting Wednesday. The direction of the market will depend on what is said concerning interest rate cuts in 2019. The market is clearly pricing in multiple rate cuts before the end of the year. There are even a few traders that think a rate cut till be announced on Wednesday. The majority seem the think that there will be a rate cut in September and another in December. Investors will also be listening closely to Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference at 2 PM EDT that afternoon for clues as to how many cuts there will be and when they might come. I find the folks that are betting on three cuts to be a little unrealistic and those that think there will be two a little more reasonable. Rate cuts will no doubt prop stocks up in the absence of a Chinese trade deal but it’s the end of the trade war that will be lasting bid under stocks. So I’m not sure that I’ll get back into the chase until a trade agreement is finalized. I’m sure I’ll be roundly criticized if I remain in bonds. However, I’m happy with the gains I currently have and am not willing to risk them on a volatile market and make no mistake, the trade war makes current conditions volatile. The only thing that is keeping the market sanguine about the issue right now is the Fed. All that said, we’ll see what the Fed does on Wednesday and then turn our eye’s back to China…..
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.03%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.09%, the Nasdaq +0.62%, and the S&P 500 +0.09%.
| 06/14/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.1812 | 19.0863 | 41.8053 | 51.261 | 29.7038 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | -0.0075 | -0.0617 | -0.3663 | -0.1450 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.04% | -0.15% | -0.71% | -0.49% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.01% | +0.53% | +0.38% | -0.27% |
| % Change month | +0.09% | +0.39% | +5.01% | +4.19% | +2.96% |
| % Change year | +1.18% | +5.20% | +16.28% | +16.56% | +11.20% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.4907 | 28.2021 | 32.4168 | 35.3386 | 20.4796 |
| $ Change | -0.0139 | -0.0266 | -0.0679 | -0.0897 | -0.0601 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.25% | -0.29% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.09% | +0.15% | +0.17% | +0.19% |
| % Change month | +0.95% | +1.25% | +2.56% | +3.03% | +3.44% |
| % Change year | +4.07% | +5.26% | +9.38% | +10.98% | +12.34% |
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall Neutral signal today when the 5 EMA moved down through the 50 EMA. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
F Fund:
We’ll likely get more of the same tomorrow. Then we’ll see what happens on Wednesday. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
