Good Evening, Yes the S&P 500 set a new record. Yes the market had a great week. Why? They say the Fed is going to decrease rates as early as next month. They say that there will be a trade deal soon because Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will meet at the G-20 Economic Summit next week. They are saying a lot of things are going to happen. So the market celebrates as if they indeed have happened. But the important thing you must understand is that nothing changed other than what they have been saying. When it comes to the market players, they are all trying to get a jump on what is going to happen. They call in “pricing in”. In other words the market is setting it’s prices as thought the anticipated event has already happened. I call it speculation. Don’t get me wrong it’s part of the game if you want to out perform or your trying to get rich. However, it’s a game you don’t have to play if you already have a nice profit made. We are currently sitting on a reasonable gain in the 12 percent range. Is there any of you that wouldn’t take 12 percent a year if you could lock it in? I know I sure would. That beats what the market has done since they have been keeping records. Lets get one thing straight. I’m not trying to get rich! I’m only trying to make money. Sure I had grandiose ideas of making it big when I first retired,but I soon found out that trying to get rich was way different than just trying to make money. When you try to get rich you push the envelope. You are always in stocks and you always have more exposure than you would otherwise. In a lot of ways trying to get rich is like playing baseball. The more you try to hit home runs the more you strike out. While it’s sure spectacular to hit a home run, it’s only on a rare occasion that you hit one and extremely rare that you hit a grand slam (get rich). More often than not you find yourself out and sitting on the bench. In contrast, it is more productive to focus on hitting signals. The teams that focus on hitting signals usually score more runs and win more games. And yes, sometimes they win a championship (get rich). The more greed you have the more you will get killed. Jim Cramer put it best when he said “Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered. Never be a pig!! As I have often said this is retirement money so invest it that way. Be a little more conservative than you would be otherwise and you’ll usually have more in the end. I know it’s not popular but I’m staying in bonds until the Fed actually decreases interest rates (not just talks about it) or the US and China actually have a trade agreement (not just talk about the progress they are making), or the chart for the F Fund puts up a sell signal and I am forced to make a change. There is definitely a lot of money being made in equities, but the big question is can they hold onto it. I remember last fall when I had 11 percent made and ended up losing a couple percent on the year when I got greedy and stayed in stocks. At the time I told you never again. Well…..this is what never again looks like! There’s nothing wrong with trying to get rich. However if that’s your primary goal this may not be the website for you. On the other hand, if your primary goal is preserve your TSP account like the nest egg that it is then your definitely in the right place.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.26%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.13%, the Nasdaq -0.24%, and the S&P 500 -0.13%.
The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +12.94% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
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TSP Share Prices
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