Good Evening, In Friday nights blog I talked about what would happen if the markets current priced in expectations were not met. I stated that I was staying in bonds until expectations became reality. Well today was exactly what I was talking about! The market sold off hard after Jerome Powell said the central bank shouldn’t “overreact” to signals that the U.S. economy might be slowing. The market was immediately disappointed as it had priced in multiple interest rate cuts throughout the remainder of 2019. Maybe those rate cuts aren’t such a sure thing after all. Stay tuned for the conclusion of that show. Up next is he much anticipated meeting between Presidents Trump and Jinping. There are two dynamics going here. Will there be a trade deal or possibly a promise of more negotiations and secondly, how will developments at this G-20 meeting effect the Fed momentum to cut rates? That show will be Friday. Next up on the TV guide will be the actual Fed meeting in the second week of July. Will they or won’t they??? All the speculation is enough to make you dizzy. The market almost seems bi-polar about it. One day it’s euphoric and the next it’s totally depressed. Once again I know it’s not popular for me to be in bonds. But I’m protecting a nice gain. I simply consider it like insurance. The price of the insurance is what you don’t make in stocks if they go up. It’s like any other insurance. You hope you never have to use it……..
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a small gain of +0.02%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.67%, the Nasdaq -1.51%, and the S&P 500 -0.95%/ Given the markets current Bipolar behavior I wouldn’t be surprised if things reversed tomorrow. By the matter of fact I about half expect it.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +12.96% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/24/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.1911 | 19.2318 | 42.6585 | 51.6742 | 30.4877 |
| $ Change | 0.0030 | 0.0623 | -0.0736 | -0.5198 | 0.1252 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.32% | -0.17% | -1.00% | +0.41% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.32% | -0.17% | -1.00% | +0.41% |
| % Change month | +0.15% | +1.15% | +7.16% | +5.03% | +5.67% |
| % Change year | +1.24% | +6.00% | +18.65% | +17.50% | +14.13% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.598 | 28.3919 | 32.8448 | 35.8868 | 20.8363 |
| $ Change | 0.0036 | 0.0030 | -0.0074 | -0.0134 | -0.0114 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.01% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.05% |
| % Change month | +1.48% | +1.93% | +3.91% | +4.63% | +5.24% |
| % Change year | +4.61% | +5.96% | +10.82% | +12.70% | +14.30% |
