Good Evening, The market remains confused about current statements and upcoming events. Fortunately it was up today, but overall this week has been a story of reversals. Of course the main market driving issues are the Chinese trade war and the Fed’s possible reduction of interest rates. The current confusion centers on this weekends meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G-20 summit in Osaka Japan. Depending on which official you listen to we are either on the verge of an agreement or additional tariffs. Obviously if the negotiations fall apart the Fed will pretty much have to decease rates possibly even during the July meeting of the FOMC. If there is an agreement or at the least a truce while further negotiations take place then the Fed might not be in a hurry to decease rates. It’s anybodies guess as to how the market will react to either scenario. My best guess would be that it will rally given a trade agreement or a rate decrease. I find it highly unlikely that there will be a rate decrease if a trade agreement is completed. The worst case scenario would be if there is neither a rate increase or trade agreement. You can pretty well bet there will be a powerful selloff if that’s the case. All that said we will either be rallying or selling off on Monday depending on the results Saturday’s meeting. So the immediate question is whether or not investors will buy or sell tomorrow ahead of the meeting. Tomorrow will be an interesting day. Personally, I’m glad to be in bonds although they will likely be subject to some selling if there is an agreement. That said, I think an agreement this weekend is a far stretch. I favor a continuation of negotiations. In other words I feel like they will kick the can down the road. Who knows? It’s anybodies guess……
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.28%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.04%, the Nasdaq was +0.73%, and the S&P 500 added +0.38%. Up one day down the next….. I’m pleased with our bonds. They are hanging in there pretty good given all the uncertainty.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +12.72% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/26/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.1931 | 19.1898 | 42.2009 | 51.1451 | 30.3204 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | -0.0487 | -0.0523 | -0.1128 | -0.1398 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.25% | -0.12% | -0.22% | -0.46% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.11% | -1.24% | -2.01% | -0.14% |
| % Change month | +0.16% | +0.93% | +6.01% | +3.96% | +5.09% |
| % Change year | +1.26% | +5.77% | +17.38% | +16.30% | +13.50% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.5595 | 28.3202 | 32.6673 | 35.6552 | 20.6833 |
| $ Change | -0.0130 | -0.0235 | -0.0552 | -0.0719 | -0.0473 |
| % Change day | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.17% | -0.20% | -0.23% |
| % Change week | -0.17% | -0.24% | -0.56% | -0.68% | -0.79% |
| % Change month | +1.29% | +1.67% | +3.35% | +3.96% | +4.47% |
| % Change year | +4.42% | +5.70% | +10.23% | +11.97% | +13.46% |
