Good Evening,
The headlines are great with another all time high, but the underlying action is not so good. Breadth was terrible with 2400 gainers to 3250 losers. Defensive stocks like JNJ are the winners. Momentum stocks and small caps were lagging again and if that wasn’t enough, bonds had a terrible day as well, but yes….we had a new record.
RevShark“I don’t want to sound too negative as one of the themes of the market for quite a while is that there aren’t that many great technical setups in individual stocks even though the indices act well. If you are looking for the patterns that worked prior to the Great Recession you aren’t going to find much. Navigating this market has required a much different mindset. Low volume and V-shaped moves are the norm and overhead resistance seems to have little impact.”
Stocks notch new records after ISM blooper
In case you folks are wondering why I post CNN Money so much, I try to let you all see most of the information that I look at to give me an overall picture of the market.
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -2.65% not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 05/30/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4272 | 16.4061 | 25.0698 | 34.239 | 26.5959 |
| $ Change | 0.0019 | -0.0044 | 0.0462 | -0.1038 | 0.0113 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.03% | +0.18% | -0.30% | +0.04% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.40% | +1.24% | +0.83% | +0.98% |
| % Change month | +0.20% | +1.21% | +2.35% | +1.52% | +1.72% |
| % Change year | +0.98% | +4.22% | +5.00% | +1.69% | +4.03% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.1317 | 22.4292 | 24.2421 | 25.7277 | 14.6044 |
| $ Change | 0.0040 | 0.0082 | 0.0089 | 0.0083 | 0.0051 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.04% | +0.04% | +0.03% | +0.03% |
| % Change week | +0.29% | +0.61% | +0.76% | +0.85% | +0.95% |
| % Change month | +0.64% | +1.20% | +1.46% | +1.63% | +1.78% |
| % Change year | +1.87% | +2.91% | +3.34% | +3.60% | +3.85% |
As far as the charts go, there really is not a notable change today. All four of the TSP charts remain well within their established trading ranges. The market continues to set new highs, albeit not by much. So what is the overall health of the market? Can it continue to set new highs? If you look closely at the results above you’ll notice that bonds (The F Fund) and stocks (The C, S, and I) are pretty close for the month and for the year. That may be a weird anomaly, but the results of stocks and bonds are usually not even close in a healthy market. So what gives here? Are the major indices not going to follow the small caps in their correction? If not, that’ll be a first. Yes Sir/Ma’am this market may be setting records but it is uncertain at best. Honestly, the only thing it has going for it is the statement that was in the CNN Money article tonight:
” But investors should remember that the S&P 500 record doesn’t account for inflation. The S&P 500 would have to rally to 2,120 — more than 10% — for it to reach its inflation-adjusted high that was set in January 1999.”
Ok, if that’s true we could be 10% wrong, but what happens after that???? I’m sticking with bonds for now. There are just too many unanswered questions for me to risk my hard earned capital. I’ll take what they give me for now and fight on another day. God bless and have a great evening!
Scott
