Good Evening,
The market set records again today, but the margin of the gains were frog hair thin. Many of the talking heads are beginning to preach caution, which is rare for them. We have been cautious for months now and so far all we have to show for it is a negative three percent. Lets take a look at the days action…
Big deals drive stock market higher
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.10% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/06/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4326 | 16.3229 | 25.4208 | 35.0596 | 26.8382 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | -0.0074 | 0.1207 | 0.2417 | 0.1608 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.05% | +0.48% | +0.69% | +0.60% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.51% | +1.40% | +2.40% | +0.91% |
| % Change month | +0.04% | -0.51% | +1.40% | +2.40% | +0.91% |
| % Change year | +1.02% | +3.69% | +6.47% | +4.13% | +4.98% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.1801 | 22.592 | 24.4704 | 26.0122 | 14.7874 |
| $ Change | 0.0189 | 0.0646 | 0.0896 | 0.1103 | 0.0711 |
| % Change day | +0.11% | +0.29% | +0.37% | +0.43% | +0.48% |
| % Change week | +0.28% | +0.73% | +0.94% | +1.11% | +1.25% |
| % Change month | +0.28% | +0.73% | +0.94% | +1.11% | +1.25% |
| % Change year | +2.16% | +3.65% | +4.31% | +4.74% | +5.15% |
Here’s what the SPY did today courtesy of our friends at Stockcharts.com.
The daily chart looks positive with the rally continuing higher since the breakout. The PMO is now starting to move into the danger zone, but there is still some more room before extremes are hit. Volume remains low. We might just see that level for awhile during the summer months.
Conclusion:“The market was able to maintain the rally, just barely. Indicators are mostly neutral and positive, so higher prices are certainly possible, but based on the price action today, I suspect we will see some consolidation first. (Analysis by Erin Swenlin Heim)”
OK, there you have it. I explained our rationale for being in bonds in the message that I sent out Saturday so I won’t beat a dead horse to death. That said, I will say this as a few new people are joining us: We are staying defensive until #1 We see a correction in the Dow and S&P 500 (which we have not had yet) OR #2 We get a sell signal in Bonds which currently have a strong neutral signal. Also for the benefit of those new members of our group, I personally review the charts each day and post the signals each day in this message. You can do your own thing based on the signals and information presented or you can stick with our allocation which has made excellent returns year in and year out. The information presented in this newsletter is the majority of what you will need to make your TSP decisions.
We will remain in a holding pattern until we see one of the outcomes listed above take place. We are not in the business of calling tops and feel strongly that there could be a stampede to the exit when the traders realize that a “real correction” is finally here. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless,
Scott
