06/09/16

Good Evening, Well we’re back to the oil thing again. At least that’s the excuse that the media is giving for today’s pullback. While stocks traded slightly down it was more like a breather than the beginning of a sell off. In my humble opinion it was just some healthy consolidation. More than likely we’ll see some more of it before next weeks Fed meeting. As usual the dip buyers showed up and drove us back up near the sessions highs. So it appears that their not overly concerned either.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell back -0.53%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.11%, the Nasdaq -0.32%, the S&P 500 -0.17%.

 

Wall Street retreats with oil prices after three-day rally

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +7.22% on the year. Here are the latest posted results.

06/09/16 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.0381 17.713 28.823 36.9546 24.202
$ Change 0.0007 0.0266 -0.0483 -0.1989 -0.3044
% Change day +0.00% +0.15% -0.17% -0.54% -1.24%
% Change week +0.03% +0.23% +0.81% +1.20% +0.33%
% Change month +0.05% +0.81% +0.94% +1.98% +0.56%
% Change year +0.82% +4.47% +4.57% +4.88% +0.44%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 18.0636 23.7361 25.7576 27.373 15.5036
$ Change -0.0173 -0.0564 -0.0879 -0.1101 -0.0718
% Change day -0.10% -0.24% -0.34% -0.40% -0.46%
% Change week +0.18% +0.36% +0.49% +0.56% +0.63%
% Change month +0.28% +0.52% +0.69% +0.80% +0.89%
% Change year +1.63% +2.27% +2.77% +3.02% +3.18%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
 
C Fund: Price pulled back but bounced off of support at the lower trend line. The pattern is a slight bearish wedge but based on all the other indicators I expect the lower trend line to hold and the pattern to resolve upward.
C Fund
S Fund: Price bounced off of resistance at the upper trend line but remains near the top of the bullish wedge. All indicators continue to strengthen so I fully expect more upside. The SCTR of 62.5 is currently the strongest of any of our TSP funds and justifies our investment here.
S Fund
I Fund: Price plummeted from the top of the bearish wedge to the bottom during todays session posting the biggest loss of any of our TSP Funds. The I fund remains at neutral due to the fact the 50 EMA is still under the 200 EMA. An SCTR of 18.0 tells us to stay away from this fund!
I Fund
F Fund: Bonds keep on working. Nothing spectacular, but no big losses either. Price remains solidly within it’s rising channel. My biggest concern here is the CMF which is still negative. If the F Fund is going to rise significantly then the money flow needs to turn positive, Bottom line!
F Fund

 

The S Fund took a little set back today and it’s always going to drop more than the S&P when the market pulls back. When you invest in small caps (the S Fund is a midcap blend that includes small caps) you are in effect betting on an uptrend. As I have often said, it’s like taking an elevator up and jumping out of a window to go down…. We’ll keep an eye on the charts for any changes. However, for now the uptrend is still intact! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.

God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 03/23/26

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  • 03/16/26

    Good Morning, Either I am more aware of things than I used to be or the markets these days are just more stressful. I honestly think its the latter. This market is an every other day affair right now. Eventually the current state of affairs will settle down, but for now this is it! So….I…

  • 03/09/26

    Good Day, The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!!! Oil is 100 dollars a barrel. Stagflation is on the way! Oh my, what will we do! Panic Panic Panic! Just listen to the news and you’ll make a bad decision for sure.  Here he goes again! Panic is not a strategy. Folks, we discussed…