Good Evening,
More decline today with turmoil in the middle east. Stocks were down and bonds had a killer day. Have I been wrong until I’m right? We’ll see just how deep this pullback goes…
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We currently invested at 08/G, 92/F. Our allocation is now -3.01% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/12/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.438 | 16.3388 | 25.1803 | 34.806 | 26.829 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0406 | -0.1726 | -0.2237 | 0.0283 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.25% | -0.68% | -0.64% | +0.11% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.10% | -0.95% | -0.72% | -0.03% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | -0.41% | +0.44% | +1.66% | +0.88% |
| % Change year | +1.06% | +3.79% | +5.47% | +3.37% | +4.95% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.1624 | 22.5222 | 24.3708 | 25.8882 | 14.7082 |
| $ Change | -0.0130 | -0.0479 | -0.0682 | -0.0854 | -0.0546 |
| % Change day | -0.08% | -0.21% | -0.28% | -0.33% | -0.37% |
| % Change week | -0.10% | -0.31% | -0.41% | -0.48% | -0.54% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.41% | +0.53% | +0.62% | +0.71% |
| % Change year | +2.06% | +3.33% | +3.89% | +4.24% | +4.58% |
Chart by StockCharts.com; Analysis by Erin Swenlin Heim
Today’s decline put price right back into the bearish ascending wedge, which I believe is still viable. Even if we drew a rising trend line using this week’s top, we’d still have an ascending wedge. The PMO has topped right after hitting overbought territory. Volume was finally back to average on a down day. I believe all of this spells more decline.
Wow, what a day. We’ve now been in the right place for two days in a row. Praise God for that. Sometimes you just have to be patient and stick to your guns. Sometimes you just have to trust in God. Given recent history, I wouldn’t count this market out just yet. Yes, I am still betting on a pullback. I just don’t know if this is the big one or not. Markets don’t often just fall apart. Topping is more of a process. It tends to wear the bulls out instead of run them out. I know that if you are close to retirement, you probably felt better about our strategy today than you did yesterday. Thank God I didn’t cave in and move to equities. That is, at least for today… I made a move a day or so ago to precious metals and commodities on the street. Oil has been very good to us, but I’m not sure what their talking about in precious metals as only gold and silver went up. The other metals that have been streaking up to today while gold and silver dropped got filleted. It was not pretty for them. That is a trend that I really need to change. I will have to exercise my patience there as well….. Still in bonds for now! God bless and have a great evening!
Scott
