06/18/14

Good Evening,

It’s plain and simple– the market got a pop from the FED meeting today. Not that anything new or unanticipated was said, it has just been a good excuse for buyers to buy. There continues to be a large number of under-invested bulls who are looking for any good reason to put money to work and recent FED meetings have become a buying block party. Just one note of caution for a future day: when the FED finally does announce an interest rate increase it will have quite the opposite effect than today’s news did. It will be wise to run and duck for cover on that day!  In a short note, not concerning TSP, we enjoyed one of our best days of the year on the street, out-performing the Dow and S&P for yet another day. May God be praised! 

 

Stocks are continuing their record run and for today at least, you can thank the Fed for that.

 

The day’s lively action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. The I fund whipsawed and generated another buy signal. Be advised that it could easily turn back into neutral territory should we not have some follow through of today’s buying. We are now invested at 25/C, 75/S. We’ll see how far we can ride this time before we get shot out of the saddle. Our allocation is now -3.26% on the year not including today’s results which should improve the bottom line. Here are the latest posted results:

06/17/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.4424 16.292 25.3365 35.2369 26.6981
$ Change 0.0008 -0.0423 0.0556 0.2579 -0.0148
% Change day +0.01% -0.26% +0.22% +0.74% -0.06%
% Change week +0.02% -0.19% +0.30% +0.92% -0.26%
% Change month +0.11% -0.70% +1.06% +2.91% +0.38%
% Change year +1.09% +3.50% +6.12% +4.65% +4.43%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.1782 22.5674 24.436 25.9724 14.7609
$ Change 0.0059 0.0238 0.0356 0.0469 0.0305
% Change day +0.03% +0.11% +0.15% +0.18% +0.21%
% Change week +0.06% +0.12% +0.17% +0.20% +0.23%
% Change month +0.27% +0.62% +0.80% +0.95% +1.07%
% Change year +2.15% +3.54% +4.16% +4.58% +4.96%
The C Fund broke out of its current trading range today, but remains well within the rising wedge, which I have annotated on the chart below. The PMO also turned back up today which is bullish. This chart indicates a short term run for now. However, the rising wedge pattern is considered to be bearish so we would expect the price to break below the wedge as it moves into the pattern. It is possible on rare occasions for the price to break out of the wedge for another leg up, but this is not a likely outcome. (Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com)
0618
The bottom line is that we have re-entered the equity market to try to capture some gains from this short run, but should remain cognizant of the fact that the price could dip as it moves up into the wedge. That is the reason that we must check all our charts every day so that we will always know when to leave and where to go, should it become necessary to move our funds. Also, we must not forget to thank God for any gains that we get for it is all His to give and to take. May He continue to bless your trades. Have a nice evening!
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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