06/19/14

Good Evening,

The S&P set another record. The gain wasn’t anything to write home about, but it was a gain and that is always better than a loss. We did manage to have another killer day on the street in precious metals and commodities. I always mention what’ going on outside of TSP as some of you are joining us in the AMP (Advanced Management) program when you retire. That just lets you how we are doing and what you have to look forward to. As I have often lamented, I do so wish that we had the same options available in TSP. It’s so much easier to make money! 

 

S&P 500 ends at a record as Fed optimism lingers

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 25/C, 75/S. Our allocation is -3.10% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
06/18/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.4433 16.3211 25.5324 35.4304 26.9416
$ Change 0.0009 0.0291 0.1959 0.1935 0.2435
% Change day +0.01% +0.18% +0.77% +0.55% +0.91%
% Change week +0.03% -0.02% +1.08% +1.47% +0.65%
% Change month +0.11% -0.52% +1.85% +3.48% +1.30%
% Change year +1.09% +3.68% +6.94% +5.23% +5.39%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.2075 22.6611 24.5636 26.1265 14.8594
$ Change 0.0293 0.0937 0.1276 0.1541 0.0985
% Change day +0.17% +0.42% +0.52% +0.59% +0.67%
% Change week +0.23% +0.54% +0.69% +0.80% +0.89%
% Change month +0.44% +1.03% +1.33% +1.55% +1.75%
% Change year +2.32% +3.97% +4.71% +5.20% +5.66%

Here’s what the SPY looked like today. Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com with analysis by DecisionPoint.

“Price stayed above support even though it paused after the rally. The PMO has committed to rising steadily, unfortunately into very overbought territory. “
0619
Conclusion:
“The market paused after yesterday’s record breaking close. Indicators confirm the strength of the market as they continue to rise, but soon these indicators are going to get very overbought and will need to unwind. Overbought pressure is building and to release that pressure price will need to move lower or at least consolidate. “

As I mentioned before, I post their analysis when it agrees with mine. It saves me time and after all, there’s only one correct way to read the charts. The only difference usually comes when one of us sees something that the other overlooks. That is rare, but it does happen.

As far as the market goes, it is and has been a bit extended. It seems like it’s running on fumes, but it is in strong technical shape and keeps melting up. Today’s slow action is just normal consolidation for a healthy market after a big run. I’ll admit as I did before that I may have wasted some time in TSP (not on the street) by not being in equities sooner and more often, but also as I explained before, I am dealing with people’s retirement money here and some of them who are close to retirement may not have the time to overcome an unexpected 5-10% or more loss. I treat Thrift differently in that I ere on the side of being conservative. I realize that I may lose some business if my returns are not among the best every day, but that is a risk that I am willing to take. Those of you that have been with me since the beginning know that our ten year average is as good as anyone’s. I am not bragging. I only wish to make the point that I take your retirement money seriously both here and on the street. The only difference on the street is that there are a lot more safe options with which to make money and believe me, with God’s help, we do. Let me always give Him the praise!!!!  That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and God bless you all.
Scott8-)

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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