Good Evening, First of all, be advised that the technical difficulties with our web site have been corrected. It seems that the only casualties were two posts from the 16th and last night. I can live with that.
Well I know what the market did and the majority of the time it doesn’t really matter to me why it did what it did. The charts tell me 95% of what I need to know. I will admit that there are times when what is happening outside the market is very relevant. That is why I read the news in a concerted effort to glean that other five percent of the information in order that I can be as close to 100% informed as possible when I make my market decisions. That said, I’ll try to put a spin on today’s action. The market dropped after having a very nice day yesterday. The main culprit appears to be the price of oil which continues to decline. Despite efforts by OPEC to stabilize the market, they just simply cannot control production in the US which is becoming more efficient as time goes on. As I have said many times in the past, so goes oil so goes the market and that was the case today. Although, one has to wonder how long that will remain a fact as fossil fuels are slowly replaced by clean energy.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.81%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.29%, the Nasdaq -0.82%, and the S&P 500 -0.67%. The screens were red pretty well everywhere you looked.
Wall St. falls on oil tumble, consumer sector and Fed worries
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allotment is now +10.05% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/19/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.3534 | 17.935 | 34.1622 | 44.1764 | 28.3261 |
| $ Change | 0.0028 | -0.0190 | 0.2827 | 0.3447 | 0.1343 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.11% | +0.83% | +0.79% | +0.48% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.11% | +0.83% | +0.79% | +0.48% |
| % Change month | +0.12% | +0.21% | +1.83% | +2.66% | +0.73% |
| % Change year | +1.10% | +2.79% | +10.66% | +7.76% | +15.14% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.0062 | 25.7842 | 28.8903 | 31.1898 | 17.9263 |
| $ Change | 0.0288 | 0.0740 | 0.1288 | 0.1626 | 0.1060 |
| % Change day | +0.15% | +0.29% | +0.45% | +0.52% | +0.59% |
| % Change week | +0.15% | +0.29% | +0.45% | +0.52% | +0.59% |
| % Change month | +0.42% | +0.72% | +1.07% | +1.24% | +1.39% |
| % Change year | +3.24% | +5.34% | +7.66% | +8.78% | +9.80% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: Big caps are holding up the best at this time. All you have to do is compare this chart to the rest to establish that fact. Also worth noting is that this chart now has the best SCTR of any of our TSP Funds.
S Fund: While weaker, this chart is still not in bad shape. One bright spot is the MFI which is rising. That would indicate that money continues to flow into this fund.
I Fund: Price is struggling with resistance in the 65.30 range. Also of concern is the weakening SCTR. We’ll have to keep a close eye on this one.
F Fund: Price remains in the middle of a bullish wedge. The SCTR continues to strengthen and may soon pass above 40. So what does a strengthening bond market mean for stocks? Right now it’s too early to tell. The main signal it is giving is that it does not agree that the Fed will increase interest rates like it says it will. We will see… sometimes bonds can be prophetic.
One thing to bear in mind as mild pressure builds on the upward trend is that the pattern for several years now has been to buy dips. In every case for about as long as I can remember the bears have been squeezed when they shorted the market. Add increased computer trading as well as more ETF’s and you have the perfect storm. Sooner or later one of these downtrends will turn into a bear market. However, trying to predict that in recent years has been a costly endeavor. The main thing you must remain aware of is that until it changes nothing has changed. As far as I’m concerned their still buying the dips. It has been profitable and they are not gong to change as long as they continue to make money. One more thing, don’t forget it is summer and a lot of times this is the way it is. Until you see the current pattern change consider all dips as good buying opportunities! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
