Good Evening, It was another day when “The Dow” didn’t tell the story. The Dow was supported by a rebound in energy prices after OPEC with Russia agreed to pump more oil. I’m not really sure how that works. That is increasing the supply and price at the same time. But I am sure there is a logical explanation such as perhaps the supply issue is now certain or maybe the decision to pump more oil signals that the worldwide supply is low? I really don’t have the time to waste researching that. By the matter of fact I already wasted too much time writing about it! The other dynamic in the market was again sector rotation with money moving out of tech and back into industrials that have become more attractive with the (Currently) falling dollar. Also providing tailwinds for this rotation out of tech was poor guidance issued in last nights report from software provider Red Hat (RHT) which has been one of the darlings of the cloud stocks. This report further encouraged investors to take profits after a nice run. Two things I want to point out #1 The weaker dollar is a short term trend. My charts tell me it’s going higher and while we’re on the subject so are small caps! #2 The second issue related to the 1st is that when the dollar reverses and it will, the large cap stocks that make up the Dow and more importantly for us the S&P 500 (can you say C Fund) will under-perform. It you are building your foundation on these big cap stocks you are building it on sand. This is fools gold. Don’t be suckered by this very short term trend! Also I would be amiss not to say that the trade war issue is alive and quite well (Trump greets EU trade reprisals with threat of steep auto tariff) Big cap multinational companies are really not the best way to go!!!!
The days action left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.15%. For comparison, the Dow gained +0.49%, the Nasdaq fell -0.26%, and the S&P added +0.19%.
The weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Sell, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +7.66% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/21/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.7421 | 17.7758 | 39.0355 | 52.617 | 30.1673 |
| $ Change | 0.0012 | 0.0143 | -0.2458 | -0.5424 | -0.1055 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.08% | -0.63% | -1.02% | -0.35% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | +0.02% | -1.06% | -0.18% | -1.76% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | -0.42% | +1.75% | +3.14% | -1.00% |
| % Change year | +1.30% | -1.87% | +3.79% | +8.56% | -2.23% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.8342 | 27.3244 | 31.3644 | 34.218 | 19.8594 |
| $ Change | -0.0217 | -0.0524 | -0.1134 | -0.1485 | -0.0992 |
| % Change day | -0.11% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.43% | -0.50% |
| % Change week | -0.19% | -0.35% | -0.67% | -0.80% | -0.91% |
| % Change month | +0.32% | +0.45% | +0.72% | +0.84% | +0.95% |
| % Change year | +1.45% | +1.61% | +2.04% | +2.21% | +2.39% |
