Good Evening, Today I am officially changing the three T’s to the four T’s. I am keeping the current Trump, Trade, and Tariffs and adding a fourth T which will be Tweets. Why? It’s not just presidential tweets that throw the market into a tizzy anymore. Oh no, now everyone is getting in on the act Today the administration released it’s plan on foreign investment which wasn’t as bad as anticipated. The market reaction was to resume the rally. Then in mid rally a strange thing happened. Somebody other than president Trump wrecked the market with a tweet., Thus I was forced to upgrade from three T’s to four. Necessity is the mother of invention I guess…. Well anyway, to resume the story, the market was rallying on the administration’s plan to regulate foreign investment when chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow (Yes that’s the same guy that was on CNBC) tweeted that the President is still taking a hard line on his stance with China. That extinguished the fire!!! It has been down hill from the there with all the major indices well in the red with 15 minutes to go in the session. While this kind of action is discouraging, I prefer to take a long term view of the market and that long term view is still bullish. It’s going to take a lot more than this to generate a sell signal on my charts!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allocation dropped -1.46%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.68%, the Nasdaq -1.54%, and the S&P 500 -0.86%. Remember, the funds and stocks that are falling the least also went up the least. As my Grandmother was fond of saying, “You must accept the good with the bad”. My contention is that while we had a rough day, we have had many good days. The market is still technically in an uptrend. Just as one tweet made for a bad day, one more tweet or good piece of news can turn it back around. Currently, the Chinese stock market is taking an absolute beating. If you think today was bad then take look at their market and that will put things in perspective. I have said here before and I’m saying again that they have a lot more to lose than we do. The first round of tariffs will go into effect in July. I anticipate that the serious trade negotiations are going to start in earnest at that time. China will not walk away from this cash cow! You can bet there will be an agreement and when there is you will definitely want to be invested. So our goal is to hang in there as long as we possibly can and remain in position to take advantage of that rebound when it occurs.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. Our TSP allotment is now +6.30% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/26/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.7483 | 17.792 | 38.6577 | 51.949 | 29.9886 |
| $ Change | 0.0012 | 0.0009 | 0.0850 | 0.2368 | -0.0205 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.01% | +0.22% | +0.46% | -0.07% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.12% | -1.15% | -1.25% | -1.42% |
| % Change month | +0.20% | -0.33% | +0.77% | +1.83% | -1.58% |
| % Change year | +1.34% | -1.78% | +2.78% | +7.19% | -2.81% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.8055 | 27.2501 | 31.1982 | 33.9995 | 19.7134 |
| $ Change | 0.0078 | 0.0166 | 0.0331 | 0.0428 | 0.0285 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.06% | +0.11% | +0.13% | +0.14% |
| % Change week | -0.22% | -0.39% | -0.74% | -0.89% | -1.02% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.18% | +0.19% | +0.19% | +0.21% |
| % Change year | +1.30% | +1.34% | +1.50% | +1.56% | +1.63% |
