Good Evening, Last week we laid out three scenarios for the Greek situation. Unfortunately, the worst of the three took place. Most of us underestimated the resolve of the Euro-zone negotiators. It now looks like Greece will default on it’s payment to the IMF and as a result exit the EU. The result was a sell off the likes of what we have not seen since last October. In the scenario where Greece left the EU, I said that after all was said and done that it will not be as big of a deal as it now seems. I believe after initial selling that may last another day or so, the market will start to recover. Worth noting is that today’s selling was also influenced by a bear market in China. We will have to monitor the Chinese markets as they are definitely the wild card in this situation. It will most assuredly take some time to work all this out and there will be more volatility as we move ahead. As usual, we will watch our charts and do damage control if they require it.
The days blood letting left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment finished -2.492% in the red. Owe, that hurt! For comparison, the Dow dropped “only” 1.95%, the Nasdaq 2.40%, and the S&P 500 -2.09%.
Wall St. tumbles as investors flee equities on Greek debt crisis
Today’s selling left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. As you can see from the red, all the signals changed today! We are currently invested at 30/C, 40/S, 30/I. Our allocation is now +4.51% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 06/26/15 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.7531 | 16.7036 | 28.0162 | 38.8058 | 26.5839 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | -0.0645 | -0.0058 | -0.0514 | -0.1499 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.38% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.56% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | -0.90% | -0.37% | -0.64% | +0.91% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | -1.69% | -0.12% | +1.14% | +0.16% |
| % Change year | +0.93% | -0.58% | +3.13% | +6.91% | +9.77% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.7574 | 23.6584 | 25.8098 | 27.5777 | 15.7236 |
| $ Change | -0.0095 | -0.0284 | -0.0391 | -0.0468 | -0.0300 |
| % Change day | -0.05% | -0.12% | -0.15% | -0.17% | -0.19% |
| % Change week | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.10% | -0.08% |
| % Change month | +0.04% | +0.07% | +0.08% | +0.11% | +0.14% |
| % Change year | +1.76% | +3.32% | +4.05% | +4.54% | +5.11% |
Lets take a look at the damage: (All signals are annotated with green circles)
C Fund: All indicators with the exception of price moved into negative configurations changing the overall signal for the C Fund to Neutral.
S Fund: All indicators with the exception of price and the VTX moved into negative configurations changing the overall signal for the S Fund to Neutral.
I Fund: All indicators with the exception of price are now in negative configurations moving the overall signal for the I Fund to Neutral.
F Fund: Bonds had a killer day as a result of all the selling in equities. All signals with the exception of price moved into positive configurations changing the overall signal for this fund to neutral. Buying the F Fund with long term gains in mind is still a risky proposition at this time. It has a lot of work to do before it can generate a buy signal.
Now is the time when we need to have a little faith in our system. Do you remember last year when I said that 5.00% would be a good return in 2015??? Just wondered. We’ll watch closely to see if the market can generate a bounce in the next few days. Some of our charts have moved very close to sell signals with the big move down today and will likely follow through without a bounce. Given that the damage occurred in one big move down, we will hold our positions as long as we can to ensure that we aren’t subject to a whipsaw if we sell. I have faith that God will see us through this “Greek Tragedy”! Make sure you pray for our group tonight. He has never let us down before and He won’t do it now if we remain faithful! Give Him all the praise for what He has done and for what He is about to do! Hopefully, the bulk of the selling is over. However, check your phones and E-Mails closely as another big move down could trigger some sell signals. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening.
