06/30/14

Good Evening,

The Dow and the S&P ended a little off today, but our TSP allocation ended the quarter on a positive note as the S Fund with 75% of our capital managed a gain of 0.37%. We also had another nice day on the street as we moved to several specialized sector funds. In both cases we bettered the Dow and the S&P 500 which is what we endeavor to do. There’s really not much to add as the description of today’s trading pretty much mirrors what I have been writing about. The market remains in a upward trend as it, for the most part, keeps melting up on low volume. I’m sure a major piece of news here or there could shake things loose, but barring that, I really don’t see much of a change in the immediate future. That said, the first few days of a new quarter are usually bullish so we’ll see if we can start the second half of this year off on a positive note. Rev Shark had some more comments that go along with what I have been saying so I included them below……


RevShark (James DePorre)

AM
“The lack of downside volatility is what has doomed many funds to under performance the last couple years but there is still legions of bears out there trying hard to pinpoint an exact market top. It is an exercise in futility but they just can’t resist being the genius that calls the exact moment the market makes some sort of top.
The way to deal with this market is to manage positions and keep on plugging along. While we want to monitor overall market health a focus on market timing has been more a handicap than a benefit. We have to stay focused on individual stocks and let them be our guide to the market.
The only thing worse than trading this market is writing about it because there really isn’t anything new. This is the same sort of action we had all of last week.  Many commentators focus on why the action is unjustified and trying to predict when it will come to an end but that certainly has not been very productive.
PM
What this market has been missing over the last few years is the natural ebb and flow of the price action.  We so seldom seem to have that sort of volatility that reflects the way that emotional actually work. It feels contrived and artificial and that is a part of the reason why volume keeps falling as the market goes steadily higher.
My advice is to not spend too much time worrying about it.  The action may not feel right and it certainly is slow but there are profitable trades and we should focus on those.  The one great certainly is that conditions will change but that isn’t a good reason to ignore the opportunities that exist now”

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

That’s a wrap! The first half of 2014 on Wall Street is officially in the books — and performance was solid despite a lackluster finale on Monday.

 


The flat action today left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 25/C, 75/S. Our allocation is now -2.67% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
06/27/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.4513 16.4042 25.597 35.6129 26.7783
$ Change 0.0009 -0.0051 0.0502 0.1870 0.0402
% Change day +0.01% -0.03% +0.20% +0.53% +0.15%
% Change week +0.04% +0.44% -0.06% +0.08% -0.81%
% Change month +0.17% -0.01% +2.10% +4.01% +0.69%
% Change year +1.15% +4.21% +7.21% +5.77% +4.75%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.2225 22.677 24.5827 26.1491 14.8696
$ Change 0.0085 0.0281 0.0399 0.0504 0.0323
% Change day +0.05% +0.12% +0.16% +0.19% +0.22%
% Change week +0.01% -0.09% -0.13% -0.15% -0.20%
% Change month +0.53% +1.10% +1.40% +1.64% +1.82%
% Change year +2.41% +4.04% +4.79% +5.30% +5.73%
Let’s take a look at the S Fund today since small caps are making a resurgence…
Chart Courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
The S Fund has recovered from all its previous damage and is now clean and green maintaining positive crossovers in both the EMA’s and the PMO. Volume remains light, but that’s not a concern in this market as volume remains light across the board. Normally, that would be a sign that there’s no conviction in the action, but this market has been going up on light volume ever since the financial meltdown so we’ll worry about that when and if it ever changes.
0630

That’s it for tonight. Like the RevShark said “The only thing worse than trading in this market is writing about it”. I’ll let you know when anything changes, but for now it’s flat to slowly rising and I guess that’s not necessarily a bad thing. We just have to hold our nose and embrace the pricing action, even if we don’t agree with it. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
Scott8-)

 

 




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