Good Evening, Concerns about the Fed cutting interest rates and if so how much persisted today with the market trading down for most of the session and coming back to post modest gains late in the afternoon. I would like to entertain you all with a long diatribe about how the market is going to go up or down and why but the truth is that nobody really knows. It all depends on what is going to happen. Then and only then we will react to it. What do I mean? There are two things that will determine whether this market goes up or not. It’s simple and there’s no use in trying to make it complicated just for entertainment. Here it is. If we get an interest rate decrease or a trade deal with China then the market will rise. If we get neither it will probably drop. Until one of those things happens the market will continue with more of the same action as we have recently had and I will add that until one of the above mentioned scenarios takes place buying into the market is little more than speculation. To buy into stocks right now is to say that you think there will be a trade deal or an interest rate cut. I believe that the market will be bailed out by one of those things, but I am like the fine folks in Missouri. Show me! I’ve been in this business way to long not to know that things don’t always go the way that you think they will. And when the don’t you will suffer a sizable loss and there’s no more a waste of time than making up for lost money when you could be setting new highs. My philosophy has and will be to keep my portfolio at or near it’s highs. True, there are times in the past that I have made more money, but there are many more times that I have lost more too. I prefer the slow and steady approach. I liken my approach to the tortuous verses the hare. My goal is still to win the race if I can, but my primary concern is to arrive alive. After all this is retirement money! All that said, I will now repeat, I am sticking in bonds until either there is a rate cut or a Chinese trade deal. I also might consider reentering stocks if the bond yield curve reverses. I’ll save my explanation of the last one for another time. Lets just be patient and let the game come to us……….
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was flat at -0.03%. For comparison, the Dow slipped -0.08%, the Nasdaq added +0.54%, and the S&P 500 was up +0.12%.
The days action left us with the following results: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +12.88% for the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/09/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.2057 | 19.2178 | 43.1935 | 52.9733 | 30.4279 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | -0.0246 | 0.0665 | 0.1669 | -0.1470 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.13% | +0.15% | +0.32% | -0.48% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.03% | -0.33% | -0.52% | -0.96% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | -0.18% | +1.36% | +0.82% | -0.45% |
| % Change year | +1.33% | +5.93% | +20.14% | +20.46% | +13.91% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.6502 | 28.4816 | 33.0375 | 36.1342 | 20.9994 |
| $ Change | -0.0028 | -0.0047 | -0.0113 | -0.0145 | -0.0092 |
| % Change day | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.03% | -0.04% | -0.04% |
| % Change week | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.34% | -0.41% | -0.47% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | +0.21% | +0.40% | +0.46% | +0.52% |
| % Change year | +4.88% | +6.30% | +11.47% | +13.48% | +15.19% |
