Good Evening, There market was back up today breaking it’s string of consecutive days in the red. The question now is was this just an oversold bounce or will we move back up like we’ve done that last umpteen times? There are many pundits out there who are saying this time feels different. Some say this is an oversold bounce. Others say that we’ll have a sell the news reaction to tonight’s good Apple earnings report. Still others say that the selling was the market feeling the pressure of the tariffs and that this is just the beginning. My best guess based on what I am seeing in my charts right now is that the market will continue to thrash around moving mostly sideways into the fall. I believe that good seasonality possibly bolstered by progress in trade talks with Europe or China or both will take us higher into the new year. Then I think it’s only a matter of time before the higher interest rates by the Fed (to keep inflation under control) will put downward pressure on stock prices. I believe the higher treasury yields which will accompany this will start to make bonds more attractive and apply additional pressure on stock prices. Ultimately, this will cause the market to correct. Of course you folks all know how I feel about prognostication. So why did I do it?? Over half of the questions I get are about what I think the market will do? OK, there it is. Now what will I do??? The same thing I have always done which pretty much makes prognostication a waste of time for me. I’ll monitor my charts and react to the action that I see before me.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a nice gain of +0.98%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.43%, the Nasdaq +0.55%, and the S&P 500 +0.49%. Praise God for a good day!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +5.69% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/30/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.7907 | 17.8222 | 39.8385 | 51.7852 | 30.9227 |
| $ Change | 0.0038 | -0.0084 | -0.2271 | -0.4392 | 0.0011 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.05% | -0.57% | -0.84% | +0.00% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.05% | -0.57% | -0.84% | +0.00% |
| % Change month | +0.24% | -0.06% | +3.21% | +0.64% | +2.72% |
| % Change year | +1.61% | -1.62% | +5.92% | +6.85% | +0.22% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.9501 | 27.5224 | 31.7106 | 34.6399 | 20.1238 |
| $ Change | -0.0142 | -0.0348 | -0.0823 | -0.1090 | -0.0731 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.36% |
| % Change week | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.31% | -0.36% |
| % Change month | +0.71% | +1.00% | +1.69% | +1.95% | +2.17% |
| % Change year | +2.04% | +2.35% | +3.17% | +3.47% | +3.75% |
