Good Evening, It was another volatile day! The markets sold off this morning and everything on my screens with the exception of the IWM moved to a sell signal. In particular, the S Fund briefly gave a sell signal when it’s 20 EMA crossed through it’s 50 EMA. That was enough. I sold everything with a sell signal in Thrift as well as on the street. However, in the afternoon the market underwent a complete reversal and headed straight back up from what for a lot of indices was a triple digit hole. All I can say now is better safe than sorry. We’ll sit back and watch and will respond to new buy signals if we get them. This is a difficult market to trade. By the matter of fact 2014 and 2015 have been the most difficult years that I have ever traded.
Wall Street ends stronger after volatile session
The days wild ride left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment ended up gaining +0.352%. For comparison the Dow added +0.53%, the Nasdaq+0.11%, and the S&P 500 +0.61%. It was an amazing turnaround and I thank God that we were able to finish with a gain.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Neutral. As of the close of business today we are invested at 100/F. If the market indeed reverses we may not be there long. Our allocation is now +1.89% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/06/15 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.7609 | 16.862 | 27.5924 | 38.0195 | 25.4847 |
| $ Change | 0.0028 | 0.0880 | -0.1056 | -0.0837 | -0.5115 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.52% | -0.38% | -0.22% | -1.97% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.52% | -0.38% | -0.22% | -1.97% |
| % Change month | +0.03% | +0.31% | +0.30% | -0.21% | -1.21% |
| % Change year | +0.99% | +0.36% | +1.57% | +4.75% | +5.23% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.6946 | 23.3932 | 25.4289 | 27.1075 | 15.411 |
| $ Change | -0.0187 | -0.0888 | -0.1259 | -0.1519 | -0.1029 |
| % Change day | -0.11% | -0.38% | -0.49% | -0.56% | -0.66% |
| % Change week | -0.11% | -0.38% | -0.49% | -0.56% | -0.66% |
| % Change month | +0.01% | -0.08% | -0.12% | -0.14% | -0.19% |
| % Change year | +1.40% | +2.16% | +2.51% | +2.76% | +3.02% |
I am posting the charts. However, I don’t have time to comment on them as I must see to my Dad in the hospital. As usual, the signals are annotated with green circles.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
This afternoon we moved to a a safe haven, the F Fund. Bonds will work great as long as stocks go down. However, should the market reverse for more than a short period we will have to reverse with it. Believe me, I have a lot of money invested in the market myself and am keeping a very close eye on my charts. Right now, the market is totally headline driven. We have major market moving news possible out of Europe and China. We also have earning season upon us. You may find yourself invested perfect on one day and totally wrong the next. Just remember, that if the market heads up in a meaningful way you’ll have plenty of time to get back in (if your out). The important thing is not to try to force the action. Our main priority is and should be capital preservation. That’s all for tonight. Thank you for all your prayers and kind messages. The doctors said today that my dad has suffered a small stroke and will need longer term care. We continue to pray for his full recovery. We serve an awesome God. He is with us in the market, but He is also with us at home when we need Him the most. Give Him all the Glory, all the Honor, and all the Praise! God bless, Scott
