Good Evening,
And also Good Riddance to this annoying week. CNN Money showed the major indices dropping from .7 to 1.7%, but that didn’t begin to tell the story. Small caps and momentum stocks were shelled and the Energy and Biotech sectors, which had been leading the rally, were down over 4%. The pattern is much the same as it has been so far this year with the major indices just not reflecting what is really going on in the market. Price did turn up today, but the volume was beyond pitiful. However, this is how all those V-Shaped recoveries got started for the past five years. I say this, but I say it without a lot of conviction. I’ll continue to ride stocks for now, watching my charts very carefully for new signs of weakness. Technically, things are in good shape, but there is definitely a dent in the armor and we must be ever vigilant that we don’t get caught in something that becomes deeper.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)Stocks ended a volatile week with modest gains Friday, but the S&P 500 had its worst week in three months.
| 07/10/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.4629 | 16.4093 | 25.6639 | 35.1616 | 26.4832 |
| $ Change | 0.0008 | 0.0157 | -0.1067 | -0.2241 | -0.2616 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.10% | -0.41% | -0.63% | -0.98% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.54% | -1.01% | -2.65% | -2.57% |
| % Change month | +0.06% | -0.12% | +0.29% | -1.68% | -1.40% |
| % Change year | +1.23% | +4.24% | +7.49% | +4.43% | +3.59% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.2228 | 22.6406 | 24.5216 | 26.0658 | 14.8123 |
| $ Change | -0.0185 | -0.0706 | -0.0990 | -0.1217 | -0.0797 |
| % Change day | -0.11% | -0.31% | -0.40% | -0.46% | -0.54% |
| % Change week | -0.27% | -0.85% | -1.13% | -1.33% | -1.54% |
| % Change month | -0.05% | -0.25% | -0.36% | -0.45% | -0.53% |
| % Change year | +2.42% | +3.88% | +4.53% | +4.96% | +5.33% |
“With today’s low not surpassing yesterday’s low, the rising trend channel is intact with price bouncing off of support yesterday. This is a very skinny channel, as I pointed out yesterday, so it won’t take much for price to reach the top, conversely it won’t require much price movement to break down out of the channel. Despite price being in a rising trend channel and today’s positive move, the PMO is falling. Although the PMO is rather flat so we can’t get too caught up with all the frequent direction and signal changes. “
“Last week price broke slightly above the longer-term rising trend channel on the weekly chart, but this week, it stayed inside the channel. The weekly PMO decelerated and looks like it could turn down next week.”
Conclusion:“We are starting to see some negative divergences in the intermediate- and short-term indicator sets. They are falling even as price is moving higher within a short-term rising trend channel. In my mind, this is bearish. Ultra-short-term indicators are neutral, which could support the supposition that price will at least travel to the top of this small rising trend channel, but short-term and intermediate-term indicators are bearish and imply that price will eventually break down from this rising trend channel.”
