07/25/16

Good Evening, Lower oil prices enticed an extended market to take a rest today. No real damage was done with support holding and stocks finishing well off their lows for the day. However, the VIX moved up again leading me to believe there will be some downside in the coming days or weeks. I will add those charts at the bottom so you can see what I’m talking about.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped back -0.12%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.42%, the Nasdaq -0.05%, and the S&P 500 -0.30%. Not much was working out there today.

 

Wall St. declines as earnings take center stage

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allotment is now +1.42% on the year not including todays results. Here are the latest posted results.

 

07/22/16 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.0679 17.9141 29.6983 37.8974 23.8782
$ Change 0.0006 -0.0018 0.1347 0.2483 -0.1016
% Change day +0.00% -0.01% +0.46% +0.66% -0.42%
% Change week +0.03% +0.12% +0.64% +0.83% -0.01%
% Change month +0.09% +0.15% +3.74% +4.71% +2.63%
% Change year +1.02% +5.66% +7.75% +7.55% -0.90%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 18.1742 23.9678 26.0869 27.7612 15.7398
$ Change 0.0084 0.0236 0.0369 0.0461 0.0299
% Change day +0.05% +0.10% +0.14% +0.17% +0.19%
% Change week +0.12% +0.23% +0.32% +0.36% +0.41%
% Change month +0.78% +1.62% +2.30% +2.67% +3.02%
% Change year +2.26% +3.27% +4.08% +4.48% +4.75%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.

 

VIX: Here is the volatility index. Note the sizeable spikes two out of the last three days.

VIX

 

The VVIX: This is a measure of the volatility of the volatility index. Laugh if you will, but it is often the earliest indicator when the market changes direction. As you can see it is definitely moving up spiking two out of the last three days.

VVIX

 

C Fund:

C Fund

 

S Fund:

S Fund

 

I Fund:

I Fund

 

F Fund:

F Fund

The VIX is definitely indicating that some downside is coming. How much, I can’t say. What I can say is that this market is extended and due for some kind of correction which definitely supports the VIX. As I mentioned above, the VVIX which is a measure of the volatility of the VIX is definitely moving up. Our strategy is to wait for the market to pullback and find a good entry point into the equity market which for us is the C,S, or I Funds. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades.

God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  [email protected]. 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

  • 05/19/25

    Good Morning, Another day another challenge. This market is anything other than boring and I say that not necessarily in a good way! When it comes to the market I think boring is good. That means less volatility and that means less stress. Nonetheless, we have what we have and we must deal with it.…

  • 05/12/25

    Good Morning, Our charts told us we were at the bottom and the fundamentals agreed. The opportunity was so compelling that we probably jumped back in a few weeks to early, but we wanted to make darn sure we were positioned for the run that would surely come. The market dipped and many chicken little…

  • 05/05/25

    Good Morning, Inevitably, we will have a down day and today is it. Believe it or not the S&P 500 has gone up the past nine sessions and it’s been a long time since it’s done that. So a down day today is not so bad. The recent run has pretty much put things back…