Good Evening, Yesterday’s FED announcement went just as we had anticipated with a quarter point rate cut. The market rallied on the news until Jerome Powell stated that this was not the beginning of a pattern but merely a mid cycle adjustment. I understand what was saying and I believe that most investors did as well. However, the high speed computer programs did not and sold the news. As you may remember I outlined possible scenarios of the market response to the Fed decision and a sell the news reaction was one of them. I just didn’t mean that it would happen exactly that way (: As most of you know I am not a fan of algorithm trading. I personally think it taints the market and should be heavily regulated if not outlawed altogether. I guess they are waiting for the machines to crash the market before they do that. Anyway, the market bounced back this morning just like we thought it would when the folks running the machines realized that their machines had overreacted which is always the case these days. We were rolling into the afternoon session with triple digit gains and threatening to add more when the mad tweeter struck again. President Trump tweeted that he was going to tack additional tariffs onto Chinese products and the blasted machines started selling again! Don’t get me wrong. I support the President in his trade war. It’s true that we have been getting the short end of the stick when we trade with China. But Mr. President could you please think of the timing of your tweets. You criticize Jerome Powell for what he said and then you darned if you didn’t do the same thing yourself. We Are trying to help you and bring this market higher but you are absolutely killing us. I’m sure the Chinese got your message but we’re the ones that had to pay for it!!!! I guess tomorrows a new day. Perhaps we can get the ball rolling again….
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment fell -0.90%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -1.05%, the Nasdaq -0.79%, and the S&P 500 -0.90%. That is almost a mirror image of what the market was doing prior to the Presidents tweet.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +11.47% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 07/31/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.2264 | 19.2925 | 43.2268 | 53.4025 | 29.9259 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0277 | -0.4741 | -0.4525 | -0.2968 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.14% | -1.08% | -0.84% | -0.98% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.24% | -1.49% | -0.92% | -1.73% |
| % Change month | +0.18% | +0.21% | +1.44% | +1.64% | -2.09% |
| % Change year | +1.46% | +6.34% | +20.23% | +21.43% | +12.03% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.656 | 28.4805 | 32.9771 | 36.0468 | 20.938 |
| $ Change | -0.0414 | -0.0742 | -0.1980 | -0.2590 | -0.1717 |
| % Change day | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.60% | -0.71% | -0.81% |
| % Change week | -0.28% | -0.37% | -0.87% | -1.04% | -1.19% |
| % Change month | +0.19% | +0.21% | +0.21% | +0.22% | +0.22% |
| % Change year | +4.91% | +6.30% | +11.27% | +13.20% | +14.86% |
S Fund: The C Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the the PMO, MACD, and Wms%R all moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall sell signal when the 5 EMA passed through the 50 EMA and the SCTR moved below 40, and the PMO, MACD, and Wms%R all moved into negative configurations. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall buy signal when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
If everybody would quit speaking and tweeting we might actually make some money tomorrow. We will see…. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
