Good Evening, The focus of the market today was again on the negotiations for a new stimulus package from congress or should I say lack of negotiations. The major indices were actually working on a nice close in the green until Mitch McConnell replied to a reporter asking about the negotiations that the there had been no communication between Democrats and Republicans today with regard to a new stimulus package. Stocks dropped when the statement was made with all three of the major indices closing well in the red. The market seems like it will accept nothing less than a new stimulus package and will move sideways or lower until it gets one. Also announced late this afternoon was the Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate. Joe Biden officially announced Kamala Harris as his running mate. You can bet that the market will vote on her in the coming weeks. Laugh if you want but the market is usually pretty accurate at predicting the winner of the presidential election. I will add that it is usually much more accurate than the poles quoted by the news services. So pay close attention to how the market reacts to this development…. All in all nothing has changed. The market continues to be influenced by the same issues. #1. The pandemic (new cases and deaths from Covid-19, reports on a vaccine) #2. The ongoing recovery from the economic shutdown as reflected through corporate and economic reports. #3 Stimulus efforts by the Government and the Federal reserve to support the economy. #4 Ongoing tensions with China over their handling of the Corona Virus outbreak as well as trade #5 Ongoing protests related to the Black Lives Matter movement and #6 Political unrest do to the US Elections to be held in November. That’s the same list we talked about a few blogs ago. If I was going to make any changes to the list it might be to move #3 and #6 to the front of the list. Of course it depends on each days news as to which issue would move to the front of the list…..My thought is that the upcoming election will start to have more sway in the trading as we close in on November. If candidates viewed as not market friendly start to surge then look for more selling. As you all know I stay out of politics on this blog with the exception of how they effect the market. Without getting overly specific you can listen to each candidates views on market and banking regulation. If they favor increased regulation then you can bet the market will fall when they are perceived as having the upper hand.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment gave up -0.61% today. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.38%, the Nasdaq -1.69%, and the S&P 500 -0.80%. You can tell from the large dip in the Nasdaq that money is flowing out of tech and into recently beaten up stocks that benefit from the recovery of the economy.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +24.15% on the year. Here are the latest posted results:
| 08/11/20 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.46 | 21.1453 | 49.2962 | 57.6233 | 30.686 |
| $ Change | 0.0002 | -0.0947 | -0.3962 | -0.4156 | 0.2643 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | -0.45% | -0.80% | -0.72% | +0.87% |
| % Change week | +0.01% | -0.50% | -0.52% | -0.63% | +1.11% |
| % Change month | +0.02% | -0.39% | +1.95% | +2.88% | +3.08% |
| % Change year | +0.67% | +7.24% | +4.31% | +2.39% | -6.21% |
| Fund | L INC | L 2025 | L 2030 | L 2035 | L 2040 |
| Price | 21.485 | 10.3431 | 35.3421 | 10.452 | 38.9437 |
| $ Change | -0.0150 | -0.0133 | -0.0538 | -0.0175 | -0.0699 |
| % Change day | -0.07% | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.17% | -0.18% |
| % Change week | -0.02% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| % Change month | +0.53% | +1.22% | +1.47% | +1.61% | +1.76% |
| % Change year | +1.41% | +3.43% | +1.40% | +4.52% | +1.34% |
| Fund | L 2045 | L 2050 | L 2055 | L 2060 | L 2065 |
| Price | 10.5268 | 22.7552 | 10.6704 | 10.6705 | 10.6707 |
| $ Change | -0.0202 | -0.0458 | -0.0215 | -0.0216 | -0.0216 |
| % Change day | -0.19% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% |
| % Change week | -0.02% | -0.01% | +0.03% | +0.03% | +0.03% |
| % Change month | +1.88% | +2.01% | +2.47% | +2.47% | +2.47% |
| % Change year | +5.27% | +1.21% | +6.70% | +6.71% | +6.71% |
2 responses to “08/11/2020”
Amen!
Thank you so much, Scott, for the wise and consistent counsel you give us! Because I chose to listen to your advice, my TSP account has a lot more money in it than before the market crashed earlier this year… and the market hasn’t even reached the level that it was at before the crash! I am grateful to God that He led me to your website. Money isn’t everything, but things are always a little bit brighter when I see my TSP headed in the right direction. Thanks again!!!