08/13/18

Good Evening, The word on the street today is that the fall in the Turkish lira is going to start a contagion. I can hear some of the new folks in our group now saying “a what?”. A contagion is a fancy word to describe something spreading. I prefer to think of it as falling like dominoes. In this particular case it’s talking about emerging economies being effected by the currency fluctuation. Starting with the ones in Europe. Friday I said any pullback would be a buying opportunity. That is not to say that there might not be some short term pain. Back in 1997 this same type of scenario happened. If memory serves me correctly. I believe the country was Thailand.   The US markets held up fairly well in 1997 but on October 27 of that year they suffered what was then the single biggest point loss ever for the DJIA when it fell 554 points. There have been bigger percentage declines since then but that was the biggest point loss up to that time. In a matter of seven days the loss was recovered and there was a rally into the end of the year. When people think of an emerging market contagion they are always going to remember Thailand in 1997. The bottom line in all this is that we survived then and we’ll survive now. If anything, our economy is stronger now than it was then! It turned out to be a buying opportunity then and I think it will turn out to be a buying opportunity now.

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was off -0.49%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.50%, the Nasdaq -0.25%, and the S&P 500 -0.40%.

 

Wall Street dragged down by fall out from Turkey’s plunging lira

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +7.94% on the year. Here are the latest posted results.

 

08/13/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.8088 17.9119 40.1529 52.753 29.7673
$ Change 0.0039 -0.0211 -0.1608 -0.3184 -0.2634
% Change day +0.02% -0.12% -0.40% -0.60% -0.88%
% Change week +0.02% -0.12% -0.40% -0.60% -0.88%
% Change month +0.11% +0.41% +0.30% +0.87% -3.48%
% Change year +1.73% -1.12% +6.76% +8.85% -3.53%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.9562 27.5137 31.6541 34.5596 20.0677
$ Change -0.0203 -0.0479 -0.1095 -0.1441 -0.0961
% Change day -0.10% -0.17% -0.34% -0.42% -0.48%
% Change week -0.10% -0.17% -0.34% -0.42% -0.48%
% Change month -0.05% -0.15% -0.39% -0.49% -0.57%
% Change year +2.07% +2.32% +2.99% +3.23% +3.46%

 

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated an overall neutral signal today when the PMO joined the MACD in a negative configuration.
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund: The F Fund generated an overall Buy signal when the PMO joined Price, the MACD, and Wms%R in a positive configuration and the SCTR moved above 40.
A combination of poor seasonality and the Turkish lira may have us in for some short term pain but any sell off is more than likely a buying opportunity. The indices are still a long way from any technical damage and that’s the most important thing. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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