08/15/18

Good Evening, Today the market gave up it’s gains from yesterday and then some. This proved that yesterday’s rally was no more than an oversold bounce. The media is saying that stocks dropped on down beat earnings and trade tensions. Ok, trade tensions??? and that’s new today? Down Beat earnings????? Ok, lets see who reported today. Oh I see, it was a struggling retailer Macys (M). Wow, that’s a real bell weather stock……. Come on guys give me a break. I was born on a day but it wasn’t yesterday! Poor earnings??? The earnings season has been stellar and guidance has been great! Second-quarter U.S. earnings for the most part have been stronger than expected, with 79.1 percent beating analyst expectations, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Results are in for 460 of S&P 500 companies. 79.1% beat estimates and they are saying that stocks dropped today because one struggling brick and mortar store had a bad earnings report?? This only proves what I have been saying for years. The media writes the news to match the results of the market. Or in simpler words the news doesn’t make the market, the market makes the news! So what then is happening? August is happening!!! Its the slow season of the year! Never come into August and September expecting anything and if you do get it you’ll be pleasantly surprised. That’s not to say that I don’t occasionally make a little money during this period of the year, but for the most part it’s a struggle. I tend to use this time on the street to readjust my portfolio for the run into the new year. Culling laggards and adding stocks that I think will make nice gains moving into December. For the most part I stay invested in August and September to get to November. As for as Thrift goes, it kind of but not exactly the same deal. The bottom line is you have to be in it to win it and if your in an up trending market as we are then you must stick with it as long as the charts are good. That is what we do in TSP. Yesterday we made money, today we lost it. Welcome to August. Be happy with anything you are actually able to keep…….

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -1.12%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.54%, the Nasdaq -1.23%, and the S&P 500 -0.76%. It was one of those days when all I saw on my screen was red.

 

U.S. stocks drop on downbeat earnings, trade tensions

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +8.88% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

08/14/18 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.8101 17.8996 40.4127 53.213 29.8113
$ Change 0.0013 -0.0123 0.2598 0.4600 0.0440
% Change day +0.01% -0.07% +0.65% +0.87% +0.15%
% Change week +0.03% -0.19% +0.25% +0.27% -0.73%
% Change month +0.12% +0.34% +0.94% +1.75% -3.34%
% Change year +1.73% -1.19% +7.45% +9.79% -3.38%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.9776 27.5604 31.7552 34.6912 20.1552
$ Change 0.0214 0.0467 0.1011 0.1316 0.0875
% Change day +0.11% +0.17% +0.32% +0.38% +0.44%
% Change week +0.01% +0.00% -0.03% -0.04% -0.04%
% Change month +0.06% +0.02% -0.07% -0.11% -0.14%
% Change year +2.18% +2.49% +3.32% +3.62% +3.91%

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund may be down but it has formed a bullish wedge which tells me there is a high percentage that it is going higher over the long run.
S Fund: Yes Sir/Ma’am, this one has a bullish wedge too. We just need to be patient.
I Fund: This is why you sell when you get a sell signal. Tariff issues and a strong dollar are killing this one.
F Fund: Investors seeking safety are driving bonds up. This is a legitimate buy signal. A lot of foreign money is pouring into bonds right now. As crazy as it may seem our bond yields are superior to what you can find in other countries and US Bonds are one of the surest investments in the world. In short, foreign investors are getting the most bang for their buck here.
The charts still look good moving forward so I’m all in. That said, you can look for more choppy action over the next six or eight weeks. That’s all for tonight. have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

2 responses to “08/15/18”
  1. Margaret Franck Avatar
    Margaret Franck

    Despite the drop, you made me laugh. Thank you for this blog.

    1. Scott Grimes Avatar
      Scott Grimes

      If you worry every time the market drops it will drive you nuts! I try to make it interesting but even I will admit the material is redundant at best…. God bless, Scott

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