Good Evening, Wow is this one volatile market! I’m almost relieved when the closing bell rings. Don’t get me wrong. I have the confidence that my heavenly Father is with me but every time I take my attention off of him my flesh starts to wonder what new thing is gong to happen to send the market down. Yesterday was the worst day so far for the 2019 market. The major indices were all off in the neighborhood of 3 percent. The surprise was that it wasn’t the Fed or China that caused this sell off. No sir, the market was thrown a curve ball and it went down swinging, Stocks plummeted yesterday when the bond yield curve between 2 year and 10 year bonds inverted for the second time this year. Folks, the market really doesn’t like it when this happens. Why? When the yield curve inverts it signals that a recession is coming in 6 to 18 months. How accurate is this signal. It is 6 for 6 since 1978 and has only been wrong twice since 1929. It’s about as close to a sure thing as it can get without being 100%!! So when bond yields go down like this bond prices go up. Wasn’t it nice to be in bonds yesterday and today? I praise God for guiding us in this trade!! Stocks remained under pressure today but managed to close with modest gains as positive news from the retail sector kept them floating while the market continued to digest yesterday’s bond yield inversion. If you want to know more about bond yield inversions just click on the link below. The article is also posted on our Facebook page.
What is the yield curve — and why it matters
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment had another nice day posting a gain of +0.46%. For comparison, the Dow gained +0.39%, the Nasdaq slipped -0.09% and the S&P 500 regained +0.25%. Think the F Fund can’t crush the market? Think again, some days it can! I praise God again for guiding our hand in that trade. Folks I have to give credit where credit is due.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/F. Our allocation is now +8.39% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 08/14/19 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.2397 | 19.6821 | 41.2506 | 50.0517 | 28.587 |
| $ Change | 0.0010 | 0.0839 | -1.2330 | -1.4655 | -0.5568 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.43% | -2.90% | -2.84% | -1.91% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.68% | -2.63% | -3.19% | -2.47% |
| % Change month | +0.08% | +2.02% | -4.57% | -6.27% | -4.47% |
| % Change year | +1.55% | +8.48% | +14.74% | +13.81% | +7.01% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.4851 | 28.1644 | 32.0803 | 34.8635 | 20.1461 |
| $ Change | -0.1050 | -0.1871 | -0.4910 | -0.6394 | -0.4227 |
| % Change day | -0.51% | -0.66% | -1.51% | -1.80% | -2.06% |
| % Change week | -0.50% | -0.65% | -1.54% | -1.85% | -2.13% |
| % Change month | -0.83% | -1.11% | -2.72% | -3.28% | -3.78% |
C Fund: The C fund generated an overall sell signal when the Wms%R moved into a negative configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
