Good Evening, The bond yield curve inverted again today but returned to normal before the end of the session. The yield curve inversion was balanced out by a better than expected weekly jobs report leaving the market undecided ahead of tomorrows speech by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole Wyoming. Investors will be listening to the Fed Chairman closely to see what he has to say about future interest rate cuts. In his statement following the July FOMC meeting he stated that while the Fed was cutting rates in July that it should not be read as a change in the direction of the Fed Policy but rather as a mid cycle adjustment. The market was not pleased with that language and sold off. More of the same tomorrow will likely lead to more selling. We will see what takes place. As I stated in my last blog I do not intend to invest in equities again until the trade war with China is resolved. Of course, I will monitor my charts closely and reserve the right to change my mind (;
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment dropped -0.26% as the ten year treasury yield increased. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.19%, the Nasdaq fell -0.36%, and the S&P 500 was off -0.05%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested a 100/F. Our allocation is now +8.53% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 08/21/19 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
16.2463 |
19.7062 |
42.4904 |
51.5026 |
29.2741 |
| $ Change |
0.0010 |
-0.0115 |
0.3497 |
0.4279 |
0.1629 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
-0.06% |
+0.83% |
+0.84% |
+0.56% |
| % Change week |
+0.03% |
-0.15% |
+1.26% |
+1.13% |
+1.34% |
| % Change month |
+0.12% |
+2.14% |
-1.70% |
-3.56% |
-2.18% |
| % Change year |
+1.59% |
+8.62% |
+18.19% |
+17.11% |
+9.59% |
| L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
20.6118 |
28.3837 |
32.6223 |
35.5638 |
20.606 |
| $ Change |
0.0318 |
0.0559 |
0.1427 |
0.1854 |
0.1223 |
| % Change day |
+0.15% |
+0.20% |
+0.44% |
+0.52% |
+0.60% |
| % Change week |
+0.28% |
+0.35% |
+0.76% |
+0.90% |
+1.03% |
| % Change month |
-0.21% |
-0.34% |
-1.08% |
-1.34% |
-1.59% |
| % Change year |
+4.68% |
+5.93% |
+10.07% |
+11.69% |
+13.04% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
S Fund: The S Fund generated an overall neutral signal when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. Two or more negative signals or the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either the 5 EMA below the 50 EMA or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal. A buy signal is generated then the 5 EMA is above the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA, One or less indicators are negative, and the SCTR is higher than 40.
I Fund:
F Fund:
We’ll see if the markets current gains can be held. Given the season and the volatility my guess would be that they cannot. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at [email protected].
