Good Evening,

Stocks got stuck at resistance again today. A far cry from the V shaped bounces that have occurred up to now. Guess what Dorthy, we ain’t in Kansas no more! Call it whatever you choose, but stocks are not bouncing back from the recent sell off the way they have for the past five years. This is different, very different. Yes, there are lot of negative headlines out there, but has the current down trend really just been the total result of bad news when our over extended charts have been screaming for relief? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying the sky is falling. What I am saying is that this is not the same FED induced perma bear market that we have had since 2009. A higher level of caution is warranted here! The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq were all down slightly to moderately on the day. Or TSP allotment showed a slight loss, but did managed to better all the aforementioned indices. The AMP program had pretty much the same results as did our TSP, matching the Dow and bettering the S&P and Nasdaq. 

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U.S. stocks end lower; Dow turns negative for the year

 

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The day’s trading left us with the following signals: C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We remain invested at 25/G, 75/F. Our allocation is now -6.06% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:

08/11/14
Fund	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund
Price	14.492	16.4785	25.3416	34.6323	25.7903
$ Change	0.0028	-0.0007	0.0747	0.2457	0.1534
% Change day	+0.02%	+0.00%	+0.30%	+0.71%	+0.60%
% Change week	+0.02%	+0.00%	+0.30%	+0.71%	+0.60%
% Change month	+0.07%	+0.49%	+0.41%	+1.28%	-2.07%
% Change year	+1.43%	+4.68%	+6.14%	+2.86%	+0.88%
	L INC	L 2020	L 2030	L 2040	L 2050
Price	17.1968	22.4672	24.2672	25.747	14.6001
$ Change	0.0174	0.0544	0.0753	0.0927	0.0595
% Change day	+0.10%	+0.24%	+0.31%	+0.36%	+0.41%
% Change week	+0.10%	+0.24%	+0.31%	+0.36%	+0.41%
% Change month	+0.07%	-0.04%	-0.05%	-0.04%	-0.10%
% Change year	+2.26%	+3.08%	+3.44%	+3.68%	+3.82%

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Here’s what the C Fund looked like today. (Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

C Fund – The C Fund continues to test resistance at its 50 EMA and is fairly indicative of the market as a whole. Due to that fact, it remains at a solid sell signal with three out of four of our indicators in a negative configuration. Volume remains light and the PMO continues to fall and is now in slightly oversold territory. The Williams Percent R has turned down which could signal another short term drop. It is still giving a short term buy signal, but that could easily turn into a sell signal if things do not improve within the next day or so. When taken as a whole this is a weak chart and needs to repair recent damage before we could consider allocating in funds here.

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We will continue to play defense until current conditions improve. I find it highly unlikely that they will do so in a hurry when taking the negative seasonality into consideration. Our main goal right now should be capital preservation. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening!

God bless,

Scott