08/15/14

Good Evening,

A while back we talked about several possible mines that could sink the current market and why we favored playing defense until they were gone. Yesterday, we talked about the market volatility brought on by the conflict in the Ukraine and how it was the problem that could most easily effect the market due to its influence on the European economy. Well, today the market ship hit a Ukrainian mine and looked to be sinking in the early-going so much so that we canceled an interfund transfer that we issued earlier in the day. After the initial blast, the troops were able to repair most of the damage and the market ship continued on the same course with the S Fund issuing a buy signal followed up by a solid neutral signal from the C Fund. Taking all that into consideration I am issuing another interfund transfer recommendation for 40/C, 60/S to be effective Monday at the close of business. I apologize for the confusion, but the charts were dropping and we needed to protect our capital until we had time to fully assess the Ukrainian news effect on the market. At this time, the market is shrugging it off so we are continuing with our transfer. The charts are setting up for a nice short- to intermediate-term run so we want to take full advantage of that if we can. If you failed to cancel your interfund transfer, I would just let it go on through. You will probably profit by being in equities on Monday. As far as the day’s results, our TSP allocation managed to gain in the neighborhood of +0.23% which was good enough to better all the major indices on the day. The AMP program had another outstanding day as well with on overall gain of +0.372% for the day. It is now up +1.87% on the month and has made gains on nine out of eleven trading days. Now on to the day’s news…

 

Stocks Undo Ukraine-Inspired Fall, Post Weekly Gain

 

 

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Buy, I-Sell, and F-Buy. We are currently invested at 25/G, 75/S, but have put in an interfund transfer for 40/C, 60/S. Our allocation is now -5.88% on the year, not including today’s gains. Here are the latest posted results:
08/14/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.4949 16.5187 25.5901 34.8653 25.9953
$ Change 0.0010 0.0244 0.1120 0.1283 0.0974
% Change day +0.01% +0.15% +0.44% +0.37% +0.38%
% Change week +0.04% +0.24% +1.28% +1.39% +1.40%
% Change month +0.09% +0.73% +1.40% +1.96% -1.29%
% Change year +1.46% +4.94% +7.18% +3.55% +1.69%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.2323 22.5731 24.4108 25.9199 14.7097
$ Change 0.0166 0.0500 0.0681 0.0823 0.0521
% Change day +0.10% +0.22% +0.28% +0.32% +0.36%
% Change week +0.31% +0.72% +0.90% +1.04% +1.16%
% Change month +0.27% +0.43% +0.54% +0.63% +0.65%
% Change year +2.47% +3.57% +4.06% +4.37% +4.60%
Lets take a look at the S Fund since it issued a buy signal today. (Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)
The S Fund issued a buy signal today prompted by the PMO’s positive pass-through of its 20 EMA. The MAC D and Williams %R are also issuing buy signals and the 5 EMA made a positive pass through of the 20 EMA. I have annotated each one with a circle. In addition, a new upward trend has been established which I have annotated with blue lines. The S Fund actually made a small gain on the day after the bad news. Most notable was the spike in volume. This bodes well for the coming week barring no additional market changing news. I am cautiously bullish on this chart….
0815
That’s enough for this week. I would love to keep playing defense in TSP, but the nature of the investments available will just not allow it. That’s all for tonight. God has been good to us this week. Give Him all the praise. May He continue to guide our hand!  Have a great weekend. It will be a big one for me. I will be celebrating 34 years with my lovely wife Theresa! Yes, God is good.  
God bless,
Scott8-)    

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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