Good Evening,
The market took a breather today which is not surprising. I really expected some profit taking after this nice run. I do not look for a large run up from here without some deeper consolidation. The market is too extended and it’s the wrong time of year. That said, I’ll keep reading the charts and react to what the market gives me. As I have often said, I am not in the business of prognostication as I am a reactive trader. I will take what the market gives me and deal with it based on what I see on my charts. Nevertheless, I do like to have a plan in place for the most likely scenario. Our TSP allotment was flat today, but did manage to hang on to all of its gains for the month. Barring a disaster, we will have a very nice month in thrift. Our AMP allocation ruled the day, besting all the major indices with a solid gain of +0.426%. It is also having an excellent month with a monthly gain so far of +1.85%. That’s outstanding for a defensive allocation that’s incurring very little risk. More than likely there will be no big moves in the market from here through the holiday, but we should always keep in mind that the low volume can add to volatility. Right now the bias is bullish, but that can change quickly. That’s the main reason that I prefer to take a defensive posture with the excellent investments that the AMP program has available. I would do so in TSP given the same investment options. It’s true, we’ve had a really good month, but the thing you have to keep in mind this time of year is that gains can disappear quickly due to low volume induced volatility. As the kids are fond of saying “I’m just sayin”. Whether in equities or not, you can bet on one thing: the investment that I am in will have a good chart and a good chart is a good chart……It will make you money.
Stocks drift higher; S&P 500 holds on to 2,000
| 08/26/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5062 | 16.533 | 26.1941 | 35.8193 | 26.4062 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0023 | 0.0281 | 0.1729 | 0.1027 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.01% | +0.11% | +0.49% | +0.39% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | +0.08% | +0.59% | +0.89% | +1.04% |
| % Change month | +0.17% | +0.82% | +3.79% | +4.75% | +0.27% |
| % Change year | +1.53% | +5.03% | +9.71% | +6.38% | +3.29% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3194 | 22.8354 | 24.7718 | 26.3618 | 14.9906 |
| $ Change | 0.0091 | 0.0306 | 0.0432 | 0.0541 | 0.0350 |
| % Change day | +0.05% | +0.13% | +0.17% | +0.21% | +0.23% |
| % Change week | +0.17% | +0.41% | +0.53% | +0.60% | +0.68% |
| % Change month | +0.78% | +1.60% | +2.03% | +2.35% | +2.57% |
| % Change year | +2.99% | +4.77% | +5.60% | +6.15% | +6.59% |
“Price topped out at the top of the steep rising trend channel (in blue) and then stopped on support so this channel is still in play. Volume continues to diminish, the excitement of the rally is fading as fewer participate.”
“Conclusion: The market finally took a pause to digest this very accelerated short-term rally. The steeply rising short-term trend channel is still intact, but ultra-short- and short-term indicators remain bearish, giving us reason to believe price will breakdown from it.”
