08/29/17

Good Evening, Apparently even an idiot launching ICBM’s is a good dip buying opportunity! If you ever needed proof that this is a machine driven market this was it. Hurricane of the century no problem. Threat of thermonuclear war no sweat. Just cold calculated dip buying with not emotion attached. Of course some days it’s quite the opposite with the market gaping up in the morning for no reason only to sell off in the afternoon as the machines shove the it around for a few pennies. I’m sure that eventually something will come along bigger than the machines, but I’m beginning to wonder because it’s sure been a while since I’ve seen it. Nonetheless, I’d bet a few humans are buying the dips too. It’s just been working for too darn long.  Today the market headed down in the morning but regained it’s footing in the afternoon as the dip buying resumed. The talking heads were saying how resilient the US economy is. How it is bigger than any challenge these days. I say people have fear but machines don’t…that’s how they make money by playing off of human emotions. Case in point, if you sold this morning you lost. However, one thing is for sure. I don’t care what trading firm it is, how big they are or how many machines they have. They are going to leave a foot print on the charts. It’s just up to us as technical analysts to interpret the data correctly. Bottom line is this. If we follow the charts and take emotion out of it, we can be just as good as the machines. Even if we are just eating the crumbs off the table. As the famous trader James DePorre better known as the Rev Shark says. The big firms are like whales in the ocean and they make whale like movements, but we are like sharks and can be quick and agile. We have our strengths too and even more importantly, we serve an awesome God. If He is with us not even the machines can beat us!

The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment was off -0.27%. For comparison, the Dow gained +0.26%, the Nasdaq +0.30%, and the S&P 500 +0.08%.

 

The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allocation in now +11.85% on the year. Here are the current posted results:

 

08/29/17 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 15.4209 18.1023 34.1909 43.5748 28.7883
$ Change 0.0009 0.0137 0.0337 -0.0017 -0.0779
% Change day +0.01% +0.08% +0.10% +0.00% -0.27%
% Change week +0.02% +0.14% +0.15% +0.08% -0.11%
% Change month +0.18% +0.80% -0.75% -2.13% -0.31%
% Change year +1.54% +3.75% +10.75% +6.29% +17.02%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 19.0929 25.895 29.0078 31.3099 17.9899
$ Change 0.0007 -0.0006 -0.0031 -0.0047 -0.0036
% Change day +0.00% +0.00% -0.01% -0.01% -0.02%
% Change week +0.04% +0.05% +0.06% +0.06% +0.06%
% Change month +0.02% -0.16% -0.40% -0.52% -0.65%
% Change year +3.71% +5.79% +8.09% +9.20% +10.19%

 

Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund: The 5 EMA turned back up and reached the 100 EMA. This is bullish if it holds! Also supporting this signal was the MACD which moved into a positive configuration. These signals make me cautiously optimistic that the worst of this downturn may be over.
I Fund:
F Fund: Bonds keep getting stronger. So which signal do we listen to?? Sooner or later either stocks or bonds will win this tugawar!
Well if Kim Jung Dung (Pun Intended) doesn’t fire anymore missiles or light anymore nuclear bombs maybe we can back to normal tomorrow. Of course, normal this time of year does not necessarily equate with desirable….. Keep praying and watching your charts! The price action will tell you what to do and when to do it. As I mentioned above the S Fund regained it’s 100 EMA today. That could be significant if it holds. Also, mentioned above, the bond market is giving us a conflicting signal. Something is going to give one way or the other and we need to be ready when it does. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening!
God bless, Scott 8-)
 
 ***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
 
 
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future. 
 
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




  • 08/07/2024

    Good morning, I’ll keep this brief because I’m on the road again. This market is volatile! I don’t care what the so called experts say. I don’t care what the VIX is. I don’t care whether folks are making money or losing money. It is one of the most volatile and fluid markets I have…


  • *****Interfund Transfer******

    Good Day, It’s time to adjust our mix. The new mix is 100/S. Please remember that this is the percentage of money that we have invested in each fund, not the money that is taken from your check and deposited into thrift. Those future contributions should always be 100% G Fund. That automatically protects your deposit in the event that it…


  • Alert

    Recommended Changes: August 7, 2025 Your Allocation Is 100% invested in the S Fund