Good Evening, The market continues to be driven by Covid-19 and it’s effect on the economic recovery. Today the market sold off again as investors openly worried about the resurgence in Covid-19 due to the Delta variant. Adding fuel to the fire was a report that Goldman Sachs downgraded its economic outlook over the weekend, citing the delta variant and fading fiscal stimulus. Goldman now sees 5.7% annual growth in 2021, below the 6.2% consensus. The firm cut its fourth-quarter GDP outlook to 5.5%, down from 6.5%. This is a valid concern and may even cause a sell off but everything in the pandemic driven market seems to come full circle and this will be no different. If indeed this news leads us into a meaningful selloff then it will most assuredly delay tapering and keep the fiscal stimulus in place just a little longer. This will kick the can that is tapering down the road a little further. In that scenario we are eventually winners either way. As tough as it is to do we must wait this out and see where it goes. As reactive traders that is what we do. All that noted, there are some additional storm clouds forming that could lead to some selling as well. A short while back the Senate passed an infrastructure bill and sent it to the House of Representatives for approval. As you may remember the market reacted favorably to that development. To date the bill has yet to be passed. In a separate piece of legislation the house is attempting to pass a 3.4 billion dollar budget. Roughly half the house is apposed to the current budget proposal for various reasons but mostly due to the tax increases and the higher budget ceiling that it contains. If that in and of itself is not bad enough there are several members of the majority party that are threatening to hold up infrastructure bill if they don’t get their budget proposal passed. Well you all work for the federal government so you already know what that means. One of three things will happen on October 1st. Either they will pass a budget, or they will pass a continuing resolution to keep the government open, or the Government will shut down. This situation is creating uncertainty which will increase until it is resolved. Add this uncertainty to disappointment about the infrastructure bill not being passed and you have the perfect recipe for another sell off. Ok, here is where I get in trouble. The market not withstanding, no group of politicians should be permitted to hold the American People hostage. Think about this for a minute! Our economy is still recovering and could use the boost that the infrastructure bill could provide not to mention that the infrastructure is truly in need of repair. Think about that the next time you drive over a bridge. I drove over the bridge crossing the Mississippi River between Tennessee and Arkansas earlier this year and it was shut down about an hour later as a large crack was found in the main structure. They shut it down immediately and said it was in danger of catastrophic failure. And you know what?? I’m pretty sure it’s still shut down. Oh yeah, do you remember the last time the government shut down and all the contingency plans with furloughs were put in motion? I know I personally lost my vacation during one of them. At any rate the market does not like this stuff. Any politicians that engage in this type of manipulation at the cost of the American people should never be allowed to remain in office! Here’s novel idea. If they were really that concerned about money then perhaps they would not have left billions of dollars worth of military equipment behind in Afghanistan. What a joke! I could comment on the position they left my bothers in arms in during the withdrawal but that really doesn’t relate to this subject….. Folks, write your congressmen and women and let them know how you feel. This economy and this market does not need additional hurtles to overcome! There, I’m done. That was the nicest version of me that I can put forth with regard to this subject. The bottom line is that we had to do our job, budget or no budget and now it’s time for them to do theirs!!!!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment slipped -0.34%. For comparison, the Dow dropped -0.76%, the Nasdaq added +0.07%, and the S&P 500 fell -0.34%.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +16.84% on the year not including todays results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/03/21 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 16.6556 | 21.0698 | 68.1726 | 87.1052 | 40.1182 |
| $ Change | 0.0006 | -0.0358 | -0.0208 | -0.1169 | 0.0800 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | -0.17% | -0.03% | -0.13% | +0.20% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.04% | +0.62% | +0.59% | +1.81% |
| % Change month | +0.01% | -0.05% | +0.31% | +0.93% | +1.49% |
| % Change year | +0.89% | -0.60% | +21.93% | +17.39% | +13.36% |
