Good Morning, Well lets start another week. The narrative remains the same. Market players continue to scrutinize each new report and news release to see if #1 It will effect the feds decision on the beginning of interest rate decreases and by how much and how often they will occur. #2 or if it gives any indication that the economy may be slowing too much leading to a recession or  in other words is the Fed behind in decreasing rates?? As they evaluate these things they will continue to overreact to each one until there is clarity. It has been this way since shortly before the pandemic and I have no illusion that it will not continue. We know what is happening. You can speculate on why.  High speed algorithm trading? Robin hood trading? A new generation of traders?? It really doesn’t matter. The why is nice to know and some folks get so caught up in it that they forget the what, but make no mistake, it is the what that makes or loses you money. So really…..honestly…..who cares why. That’s the reason that most news is noise. You have to separate the what from the why.  Those that focus on the why can be right and glory in it. They can have that, but those that focus on the what can make money. WHAT is the result of this consistent overreaction? Volatility!! If you try to react to the volatility without being able to see through it then you will lose. The only way to see through it is with your charts. Again honestly, I look at the news only so I can see when the charts might move and when I do I am often wrong. Secondly, I look at so I can write this blog. That is it. Other than that it is waste of time and for the most part will only mislead you. The charts tell you WHAT because the price action is WHAT determines what you do. Now…..about the charts. I often get asked why I don’t write the whole blog on technical analysis. Well I used to and not to beat a dead horse to death but most folks just aren’t interested. Yes I can T/A with the best of them. A few of you will benefit from that but most of the newer investors will be left behind. As a result I tried to start writing about the the news with just a small injection of T/A. I did this because I realized how I REALLY learned technical analysis for myself. I watched the charts and learned to recognize the various patterns that occurred during different market conditions. I learned what really worked and what did not. This past week we had one of our group post a chart and ask if the indicators on the chart might be some of the ones that I am looking at. They had watched when we made at move and then looked at their charts and observed what was taking place! Folks, that is exactly how you learn!!!!! Again, I applaud that individual and you know who you are. You get it. You understand!! That’s how you do it!!! There are literally hundreds of indicators out there and most of them can be used. You can read all day long what constitutes a buy signal, but until you look at the chart and experience what’s happening when the market changes you will never effectively use T/A. Let me explain something else to you as well. We watch a lot of charts here. We watch a lot of indicators. Many many more than the ones you see on the charts that we present on this blog and a few of which are proprietary in that we developed them and wrote the code for them ourselves. They are ours and we do not share them. For the most part they are not traditional indicators and would not be widely accepted outside this group. So we take the greatest weight of those and the others that we watch and make our investment decisions. In other words we combine all those indicators to determine the WHAT. Again, who cares why.  How do you replicate this? Go to Stockcharts,com or another website that explains T/A build a chart with a half dozen or so of indicators that you understand after reading about them and then watch those charts each time we make a change. You will see the patterns and soon you will be able to tell for yourself when the trend is going to change. This is how you do it. There is an old adage and it is so true. “Fish for a man and feed him for a day. Teach him to fish and feed him for the rest of his life!”  That is what we do here. You can go to other services and pay money for them to fish for you or you can learn to fish for yourself. I’m not trying to be vague. I’m trying to get you learn how to do this for yourself. Watch when we make a change and look at your chart. That is when you will have that ahah moment!

This week we’re looking at two market moving events. The Consumer price index (CPI) which is released Wednesday at 8:30 AM EDST and the Producer price index (PPI) which is released on Thursday morning at 8:30 AM EDST. Investors will be watching them for all the reasons that I mentioned above. Of course this all leads up to the  September meeting of the Federal Reserve Board which is on September 17-18th. That is when monetary policy will be decided. That is when the market will receive some of the clarity it seeks. Will the volatility end? No, not entirely. Market players will continue to look for clues as to what the rate of future interest rate decreases will be and there will be continued speculation about whether the Fed will be able to bring the economy in f0r a soft landing. As investors have two choices. You can try to cut though all the news fog or you can watch your charts. You can waste hours everyday reading the endless reports and commentaries or you can glance at your charts and spend time with your family. It’s up to you. Watch what we do and when we do it and learn to do it for your self and be assured of one thing, You can indeed do it!!!

Here are the results of the days trading so far: Our TSP allotment is steady in the G Fund. For comparison The Dow is trading higher at +0.81%, the Nasdaq is +0.51%, and the S&P 500 is +0.57%. There is still a lot of damage to repair on the charts from last weeks sell off before we will consider buying back into equites.

Dow rips more than 350 points higher as markets claw back some of last week’s losses

Recent action has left us with the following signals.  C-Sell, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Buy. We are currently invested at 100/G.  Our allocation is now +7,87% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

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