Good Morning, When we went into September invested at 100/S many folks said we’d get knocked out. Well, guess what? We’re still standing. There were many including some in our group that basically said “you messed up this time, no sir not me, I’m not doing that. September is always the worst month for the market. It has been since they’ve been keeping records.” Believe it or not, seasonal investing is a viable strategy that can make you some money. I consider it somewhat less risky than buy and holding, but not a lot. It has all the old clichés the most famous being Sell in May and go away then remember in November. Yeah, I know some folks that do it every year although most of them eventually get forced to sell out during bear markets. Believe me when I tell you that I had more than a few folks contact me about this September. I also received more than a few charts and graphs showing how September has been a perennial loser since the 1920’s. Do they think I haven’t seen all that stuff many times before?? Really? Here’s the thing. September has indeed been the worst month for the market over history. So if your playing the averages then you are going to be correct 80 to 90% of the time if you sell in September. There is no doubt about that. The same thing applies to buying and holding. If you want to average a 10% annual return then just stay invested in the S&P 500 and that’s what you’ll do, but what about if you want to beat the averages? After all , isn’t that what we want to do? If that is the case then you have to consider the 10 to 20% of the time that the market actually makes money in September. So what makes this September different? A lot of things! First and foremost the Fed is overdue to restart their rate cutting cycle that was put on hold earlier this year due to the implementation of Tariffs on foreign goods by the Trump Administration. Pretty much everyone out there but Jerome Powell knows that the the Fed should have resumed cutting rates in July. So….by hook or crook a new rate cutting cycle is due to begin this month. Is there anyone that believes that a rate cut won’t boost the market? If there is then contact me privately. I’ve got some swampland in Florida that will soon be beach front property that I would like to interest you in……. Secondly, you have the ongoing Tariff negotiations. Folks, the are a couple big ones left. Most notably China. Did you know that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi on Friday? Can you imagine the boost that the market will get if they finalize a trade agreement that is beneficial to both sides and we get a rate cut on Wednesday? That pretty much guarantees that the market will rally into the New Year . Then finally we have the charts. All our TSP equity based charts are currently sitting on buy signals. So….tell me again why we should sell in September????? I’m just a little foggy on that! This is a busy week and I’ve already mentioned why. The September Fed meeting concludes on Wednesday and President Trump and Xi will meet on Friday. Unless they are discussing the weather that meeting will likely have a favorable outcome. So keep praying and keep a close eye on your charts. We a have a rocket on the launching pad and all we need is for the fuse to be lit. Oh yeah!
The market open had so far produced the following results. Our TSP allotment opened the day at +0.21%. For comparison the Dow is flat at -0.02%, the Nasdaq is +0.44%, and the S&P 500 is +0.34%. Praise God! So far so good!
Stocks rise after Trump’s positive comments on China trade talks, gain in Tesla: Live updates
Last weeks action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Buy. All buys!! We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is +16.97% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/12/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.3404 | 20.7266 | 104.9694 | 99.7236 | 52.0907 |
| $ Change | 0.0022 | -0.0281 | -0.0465 | -0.9516 | -0.0039 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.95% | -0.01% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | +0.41% | +1.60% | +0.55% | +1.67% |
| % Change month | +0.14% | +1.35% | +1.98% | +1.53% | +2.33% |
| % Change year | +3.13% | +6.41% | +12.96% | +10.62% | +24.33% |
