Good Evening, Well the three T’s got us again today. Trump, Trade and Tariffs! The Trump Administration said over the weekend that they were prepared to enact a 10% tariff on an additional 200 billion dollars worth of Chinese goods. Of course, the Chinese announced in their state run newspaper that they were “looking forward to a more beautiful counter-attack and will keep increasing the pain felt by the U.S.” Then by the afternoon when we though things had finally stabilized President Trump tweeted that there would be a trade related announcement sometime after the bell. Stocks sold off into the final bell on that news. As of this time I haven’t heard any further news on that announcement. My guess is that it will be to formally announce the above mentioned new tariffs on Chinese goods. That’s it, pretty plain and simple. My advice on this development is not to panic and to hold tight. No doubt, these tariffs create a lot of uncomfortable volatility, but I will remind everyone that the market has bounced back quickly every time this has taken place in the recent past and while that is no guarantee that it will bounce back again I certainly wouldn’t bet against it. The fundamental forces driving the market are still quite strong and will continue to drive this market higher in the long run. We may just have to suffer though the three T’s until we get there……….
The days selling left us the following results: Our TSP allotment felt the pain posting a drop of -1.19%. For comparison, the Dow lost -0.35%, the Nasdaq -1.43%, and the S&P 500 -0.56%. Tech was hit especially hard as investors view that as a vulnerable area to tariffs. I believe some of that view to be poorly founded. While it’s true that some tech companies like Micron (MU) and Apple (APPL) do a lot of business in China not all tech companies have that big of a foot print there and do a lot of business domestically. I still say that China needs us worse than we need them. Only time will tell if I’m wrong or if I’m right.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +11.40% on the year not including the day’s results. Here are the latest posted results.
| 09/14/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.85 | 17.8612 | 41.4281 | 54.4453 | 29.9218 |
| $ Change | 0.0012 | -0.0260 | 0.0175 | 0.2041 | 0.1415 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.15% | +0.04% | +0.38% | +0.48% |
| % Change week | +0.05% | -0.11% | +1.21% | +1.05% | +1.78% |
| % Change month | +0.11% | -0.54% | +0.22% | -0.44% | -1.09% |
| % Change year | +1.99% | -1.40% | +10.15% | +12.34% | -3.03% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.0865 | 27.7629 | 32.1316 | 35.1647 | 20.4623 |
| $ Change | 0.0082 | 0.0184 | 0.0411 | 0.0542 | 0.0367 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.15% | +0.18% |
| % Change week | +0.31% | +0.46% | +0.83% | +0.98% | +1.11% |
| % Change month | +0.00% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.22% | -0.26% |
| % Change year | +2.74% | +3.25% | +4.54% | +5.04% | +5.49% |
