Good Evening, Trade worries continued to subside today allowing the the Dow and S&P 500 to post new highs. The Dow in particular was finally able to regain what it lost in the January correction. All that noted, there were still pockets of weakness in groups of stocks that had been working prior to the most recent dip. I’m not ready to say the market character has changed but I would characterize more as having a different feel. Big Cap stocks continued to perform a little better than small caps which according to a few commentators is normal for late September and early October. That’s a new one on me but I’ll take it as the only viable explanation for the big cap performance given the current trade situation. I really need to do some more research on that topic. That said, if we’re going to talk about seasonality then lets talk about the whole deal. November and December are clearly the best months for small cap out performance over the years. Given that fact along with the trade war I’ll stick with the S Fund as long as I possibly can moving into 2019.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a gain of +0.73%. For comparison, the Dow was up +0.95%, the Nasdaq +0.98%, and the S&P 500 +0.78%. Praise God for a day in the green!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +10.19% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/19/18 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
15.8563 |
17.7823 |
41.473 |
53.8511 |
30.3135 |
| $ Change |
0.0012 |
-0.0309 |
0.0520 |
-0.2305 |
0.1682 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
-0.17% |
+0.13% |
-0.43% |
+0.56% |
| % Change week |
+0.04% |
-0.44% |
+0.11% |
-1.09% |
+1.31% |
| % Change month |
+0.15% |
-0.98% |
+0.32% |
-1.53% |
+0.20% |
| % Change year |
+2.03% |
-1.84% |
+10.27% |
+11.11% |
-1.76% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
20.0991 |
27.7879 |
32.181 |
35.2253 |
20.5009 |
| $ Change |
0.0063 |
0.0139 |
0.0302 |
0.0382 |
0.0248 |
| % Change day |
+0.03% |
+0.05% |
+0.09% |
+0.11% |
+0.12% |
| % Change week |
+0.06% |
+0.09% |
+0.15% |
+0.17% |
+0.19% |
| % Change month |
+0.06% |
+0.04% |
-0.01% |
-0.04% |
-0.07% |
| % Change year |
+2.81% |
+3.34% |
+4.70% |
+5.22% |
+5.69% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: The C Fund generated an overall Buy signal today when the MACD moved into a positive configuration. This leaves only the PMO in a negative configuration with an SCTR greater than 40 to generate the signal. Two or more negative signals or Price below the 50 or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either price below the 50 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal.
S Fund:
I Fund: The I Fund generated an overall buy signal today when the 5 EMA crossed up though the 200 EMA. This gives us all indicators in positive configurations accompanied by an SCTR greater than 40.
F Fund:
We’ll leave things be for now. I’ll admit that it’s tempting to move to the C Fund for the short term which is something that can be done to improve short term performance. However, long term conditions favor the S Fund. So that’s were I’ll remain for the time being. More than likely the S Fund will start to out perform within 3 or 4 weeks. One other thing that is effecting both the I Fund and the S Fund. The Dollar has been dropping. If it continues to do so which I believe it will not, then the I Fund will only get stronger. There are no guarantees so do whatever you feel the most comfortable doing. Right now the C Fund is the clear king with an SCTR of 91.6. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at KyFan1@aol.com.
