Good Morning, Well we got the Fed meeting that we wanted with a quarter point interest rate decrease with the indication that the Fed is planning on two more rate cuts in 2025. As a result, we find ourselves in the odd position of holding a profit in late September. I said in last weeks blog and will reiterate here that the market should rally into the new year with a Fed interest rate decrease in September. We actually got more than that. The Fed statement was clear in that they are planning to reduce rates by a quarter point at the next two meetings although they did add that there would likely be only one rate decrease in 2026. That caveat put a slight damper in Fridays rally but for the most part the market seemed willing to wait and see what happens in 2026 while remaining focused on 2025. It was clear that that investors were/are expecting the fed to continue to decrease rates beyond the three that they forecasted. Honestly, I have never understood this fixation on predicting the future. You almost always see a few analysts get in right and have their day a fame. Then you never hear from them again. We’ve talked about this a lot in the past. So we won’t beat it into the ground now other than to say that even a broken clock is correct two times a day. Let me say this concerning rate decreases in 2026. The Fed is and always has been data dependent. So in all actuality they have little if any idea what they will be doing in January. So why worry about what you can’t predict and can’t change (at least at this point). I prefer to live in the precious present. It’s far less stressful. I’ll leave the future to God…. Anyway getting back to the main subject, we fully expect the market to rally into the new year. Then we’ll have to take a close look at things and see where we’re heading. For now, lets deal with the precious present that I mentioned above. This week we have two big issues that will affect stocks. The first is a possible landmine. It’s time for congress to negotiate a new budget. I’ve come in recent years to dread this process. It seems like it’s gotten worse and worse with each passing year as the government has become more and more divided. I really have to ask the question “Is there anything they can agree on anymore?” I wrote about he answer over 15 years ago and have echoed it several times since then. Socialism and Capitalism don’t mix. It’s like trying to put light and darkness together. It is obvious that the extremes become more and more extreme with each passing year. I will go somewhere that I have not gone before. I endeavor to stay totally out of the realm of politics unless if affects the market. Well……this affects the market and everything else too.  It’s become so extreme that honestly, I don’t care what anyone thinks anymore. I pray for everyone in our group regardless of what political persuasion they are. I want each and every one of you to have success in your life. I will tell you a lesson I learned the hard way…. there is no success in this life without Jesus Christ. You may have a small illusion of  success, but it is fleeting and will not last….it will never last. I never thought in a million years that I would be talking about socialism and our government in the same breath, but here we are. When I went to college back in the late 70’s ( I know I’m ancient) I took a few political science classes….( to pad my grade point average as they were much easier than chemistry and microbiology). I can remember studying the Marxist doctrine and thinking who could be stupid enough to do this? Fast forward to today…. I look at all these movements, I look at the so called socialist politicians, I look at what’s happening on the college campuses and in the big cities and I think to myself…..where have I seen this before….where???? Then I remembered. It’s straight out of the Marxist doctrine that I read in the late seventies. Almost word for word. Folks, go read it for yourselves. God’s word says there’s nothing new under the sun and that scripture definitely applies here. Many of the glitches we have in the market today are a direct result of the conflict of these ideologies. It is hard to be optimistic about a quick agreement in congress on the new budget. I could not agree with these folks on anything! Most of them only care about gaining power and they sure don’t give a rip about your future. To negotiate a budget with them is like trying to negotiate a budget with communist Cuba. It’s an impossible task. Folks, I don’t have solution for this other than to pray that God will intervene and give His children the votes they need to preserve our way of life which includes our religious freedom as well as a free market.  There is no doubt that these budget negotiations will affect stocks over the coming weeks. How much? We will have to see. We’ll just have to watch our charts and depend on them to tell us when to exit the market should it become necessary to do so. I don’t think it will, but that’s only a guess. The other market moving issue that we have this week is the PCE report on Friday. The PCE Price Index is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key economic indicator released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that measures inflation for goods and services purchased by consumers and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The Core PCE Price Index excludes volatile food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends and is widely used to guide monetary policy.  Investors will watch this report closely to make sure that inflation doesn’t derail expected interest rates cuts by the Fed in November and December. An important point to note is that all economic reports for the remainder of the year will be closely watched for inflation for this same reason.  The bottom line of all this is that the market should rally into the new year, but it definitely won’t be as smooth as it could be. We’ll need our charts now more than ever to help us cut through this volatility. 

The days trading so far has left us with the following results: our TSP allotment is trading lower at -0.17%. For comparison, the  Dow is slightly higher at +0.07%, the Nasdaq is +0.31%, and the S&P 500 is +0.16%.

S&P 500 is little changed to start the week after hitting fresh records: Live updates

Last weeks trading left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Hold, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +18.76% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

More Prices & Returns

God bless, Scott 

***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.

I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.

If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.