09/23/2024

Good Morning, Honestly, I don’t have much to say this morning that I haven’t already repeated many times. The inflection point for the market was last Wednesday’s Fed meeting where the Fed started a new policy cycle of rate cuts. Even though the discussion and debate is largely over the size of the rate cut which was 0.50% instead of the standard 0.25%, that is not the important issue. The most important thing is that the Fed ushered in a new economic cycle of loosening monetary policy. This signaled the end of the battle of inflation and put the focus squarely on the second part of the Fed’s dual mandate which is to maintain stable employment. Make no mistake, the decision to go with a half point instead of a quarter point increase had more to do with recent weakness in the labor market than it did with inflation. The Fed noted that the rate of inflation was coming closer to their target of two percent to be sure but what really caught their attention was the a weakening in the labor market. In order to insure that the economy comes in for a soft landing which is a term to describe inflation coming under control without a recession, the Fed must insure that employment remains stable. Thus, the half point decrease in the overnight lending rate. Now here’s the thing that injects a bit of uncertainty into the situation (remember uncertainty equals volatility where the market is concerned). Adjustments made by the Fed to the overnight lending rate don’t instantly get to the consumer. It actually takes around 8 months for an adjustment to reach the (money) market. That’s where all the uncertainty and volatility comes in. At least in theory, the current rate of inflation and unemployment are influenced by what the Fed did 8 months ago. So investors are now w0ndering out loud if the increase in rates 8 to 12 months ago will now push us into a recession. They wonder if the Fed went to far. They wonder if the Fed increased 1/2 a percent instead of a 1/4 percent because they realized that they went to far 8 months ago? They wonder if an increasing rate of unemployment will push is into a recession. So they will scrutinize each economic report and Fed statement through tinted glasses that ask ‘are we moving into a recession’. In other words they are extremely pessimistic in their views of where this economy is going and they will look for it one news release at a time. Personally, I am optimistic and think it’s all yet to be determined. Don’t forget we have an election and a lot of geopolitical stuff that will be factored into to our final destination. This week market players will be looking closely at speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for insights into what the central bank will do next. They will also be looking at multiple economic reports for hints as to how the economy is responding to recent and not so recent Fed policy. As usual, I write all this to give you a sense of where we might be at. I’m not trying to predict the future and I don’t make my investment decisions based on any of these observations. I threw out my crystal ball years ago. Trying to predict the future is like taking your money to Las Vegas. You might win and you might lose. As I state virtually every week. I base my investment decisions on good solid statistics. I trust the math not the opinionated news. Folks, the math never lies and it doesn’t have on opinion. It either is or it is not. Any error that is made with regard to the math on our charts is due to our interpretation and nothing else. That said, I would much rather try to interpret the math than the opinionated and in some cases fake news…… I trust in only two things. God and my charts. I react to what I hear from God and what I see with my eyes my charts.

 

This mornings trading has so far produced the following results: Our TSP allotment is currently up +0.25%. For comparison, the Dow is adding +0.15%, the Nasdaq +0.25%, and the S&P 500 +0.25%. The charts have weakened just a little over the past week. So we need to keep a very close eye on them at this point.

 

 

Dow futures rise slightly to start the week as index looks to add to record: Live updates

 

Recent action has generated the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/C. Our allocation is now +10.05% for the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:

 

 

09/20/24 Prior Prices
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 18.5371 20.1417 89.7959 85.7204 44.8402
$ Change 0.0020 -0.0128 -0.1742 -0.6269 -0.3037
% Change day +0.01% -0.06% -0.19% -0.73% -0.67%
% Change week +0.08% -0.22% +1.39% +2.41% +1.01%
% Change month +0.22% +1.59% +1.05% +1.09% -0.63%
% Change year +3.20% +4.78% +20.75% +11.19% +11.59%

More Prices & Returns

 

 Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger. If you want to learn more about technical analysis check out the website StockCharts.com.  
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
I know it sounds redundant but at this point we just need to run our system and pray for the best. One thing I will mention here is that if you follow this website whether you admit it or not you are a capitalist. Investing is capitalism. So I would ask each one of you the following question. Do you like making money? If you do then I would urge you in the strongest way possible to pay attention to the upcoming election in the United States of America. If you are a registered voter here then you need to evaluating each candidate closely to determine which ones will best represent your interests. Just as in investing you can’t depend on opinionated news to tell you what you need to know. What are the fruits of these candidates? What have they done in the past? They will always return to their old ways. So again, what have they done? Remember a couple things when doing this evaluation. Again, don’t forget, if investing here, you are a capitalist. Capitalism and Socialism do not mix. They never have and they never will. There is no such thing as social democracy. It does not exist. It is a lie from the pits of hell! A government that is big enough to give you anything is big enough to take everything! Not everyone is who they say they are! Look at their past. Look closely at what they have done and what they have said. Don’t depend on some bubble head commentator to tell you these things. Look for yourself. Look at their past speeches and statements. Then ask your self two questions. #1. Can you vote for them as a Christian?? and while your asking that question don’t forget Romans 3;23 “for all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God”. No one is perfect, but are they trying to do the right thing or do they have self serving sinful interests? #2 Are they a socialist?  The definition of socialism is:
“a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.  (in Marxist theory) a transitional social state between the overthrow of capitalism and the realization of communism. “socialism is the first stage of the worldwide transition to communism”
If you don’t already know it then y0u can  look the definition of communism…. The bottom line is this. There are folks who are wolves in sheep’s clothing that would like to take us there. Don’t be deceived. Understand who you are voting for and why you are voting for them. Voting is serious business. It’s not just something you do every November 3rd. Brave Americans have died to give you this right. Don’t throw it and everything  they died for away because a candidate looks like they might be a nice person. Be absolutely sure you know who you are voting for.
I have not endorsed nor will I endorse any political candidate on this website. However, I will as I have done, point to policies that will best serve our interests as investors.
All it takes for evil to reign is for good men to do nothing. That’s all for today. Have a nice afternoon and may God continue to bless your trades.
God bless, Scott Sunglasses
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at  KyFan1@aol.com.

 

 

 

 




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    Good Morning, Honestly, I don’t have much to say this morning that I haven’t already repeated many times. The inflection point for the market was last Wednesday’s Fed meeting where the Fed started a new policy cycle of rate cuts. Even though the discussion and debate is largely over the size of the rate cut…