Good Evening, There was more seasonal depression today along with a pinch of caution ahead of tomorrows Fed rate decision. The seasonal head winds are nothing new. They usually persist through the middle of October. Then it’s prime time! Today’s slow market had a lot to do with investors being cautious ahead of tomorrow afternoons Fed announcement. However, it’s not necessarily a rate increase that concerns them. That is already priced in. It’s the Fed’s statement they are concerned with. Specifically they will be looking at it to see if the tone is more hawkish. If it is there is a high probability that stocks will slide. If there are no surprises then more than likely it will be business as usual. If interest rates increase at a rapid rate it is a drag on the equity market and investors know it. I’m not exactly sure exactly what they are looking for in the statement other than to say that it must be just right. Not to hot and not to cold. Investors normally love to love the Fed but recently they have started to become wary of interest rate increases. We’ll just have to see how it all shakes out. That’s why we watch the charts!
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a modest gain of +0.21%. For comparison, the Dow fell -0.26%, the Nasdaq gained +0.18%, and the S&P slid -0.13%. Praise God for our gain.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +10.28% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/24/18 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.8626 | 17.8096 | 41.6386 | 53.8963 | 30.704 |
| $ Change | 0.0038 | -0.0049 | -0.1466 | -0.2172 | -0.0851 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | -0.03% | -0.35% | -0.40% | -0.28% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.03% | -0.35% | -0.40% | -0.28% |
| % Change month | +0.19% | -0.83% | +0.73% | -1.45% | +1.49% |
| % Change year | +2.07% | -1.69% | +10.71% | +11.20% | -0.49% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 20.132 | 27.8528 | 32.309 | 35.3882 | 20.6068 |
| $ Change | -0.0103 | -0.0264 | -0.0640 | -0.0850 | -0.0570 |
| % Change day | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.24% | -0.28% |
| % Change week | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.20% | -0.24% | -0.28% |
| % Change month | +0.23% | +0.27% | +0.39% | +0.42% | +0.45% |
| % Change year | +2.97% | +3.58% | +5.12% | +5.70% | +6.24% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
No changes required here. A few more weeks and we should start to make some headway again. It’s definitely been a while since we’ve adjusted our allocation. But it’s a good thing that we haven’t been forced to move! That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades.
