Good Evening, Yesterday the Fed raised Interest rates another quarter point as anticipated. Then in the following statement they indicated that there would be more rate increases, most likely one more in 2018 and three in 2019. The market immediately began to sell off and picked up steam from that point (2:00 PM) until the close. Today after investors had a little time to digest the statement they realized the hawkish Fed statement was an endorsement of a strong economy. The truth be known many of them were smart enough to realize it yesterday but were powerless to do anything about it when the computer algorithms sold the news. Actually, it would be more correct to say that investors had time to regroup this morning and regroup they did driving all of the major indices into the green by the closing bell.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment posted a small gain of +0.04%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.21%, and the Nasdaq +0.65%, and the S&P 500 +0.28%. Thank God for a day in the green.
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Buy, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +9.60% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/26/18 |
|
|
|
Prior Prices |
| Fund |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
| Price |
15.8651 |
17.8298 |
41.4503 |
53.5626 |
30.8773 |
| $ Change |
0.0013 |
0.0414 |
-0.1370 |
-0.4409 |
0.0516 |
| % Change day |
+0.01% |
+0.23% |
-0.33% |
-0.82% |
+0.17% |
| % Change week |
+0.04% |
+0.09% |
-0.80% |
-1.02% |
+0.29% |
| % Change month |
+0.21% |
-0.72% |
+0.27% |
-2.06% |
+2.06% |
| % Change year |
+2.09% |
-1.57% |
+10.21% |
+10.52% |
+0.07% |
| |
L INC |
L 2020 |
L 2030 |
L 2040 |
L 2050 |
| Price |
20.1288 |
27.8423 |
32.2793 |
35.3478 |
20.579 |
| $ Change |
-0.0060 |
-0.0168 |
-0.0440 |
-0.0597 |
-0.0413 |
| % Change day |
-0.03% |
-0.06% |
-0.14% |
-0.17% |
-0.20% |
| % Change week |
-0.07% |
-0.13% |
-0.29% |
-0.35% |
-0.41% |
| % Change month |
+0.21% |
+0.24% |
+0.29% |
+0.30% |
+0.31% |
| % Change year |
+2.96% |
+3.54% |
+5.02% |
+5.58% |
+6.10% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund:
S Fund:
I Fund:
F Fund:
I know, I know , I know. The C Fund is ruling the roost right now. We talked about this a blog or so ago. We could have moved to the C Fund as soon as the charts indicated that it was going to outperform. However, there are three reasons why we did not. First, small caps traditionally out perform large caps from the the middle of October through the end of the year. Second, the chart for the S Fund is currently in a bullish wedge formation. My experience with that pattern is that is pretty well money in the bank. Third, the ongoing trade war favors small caps over large caps due to the fact that most small caps only do business domestically. Remember, the S Fund is a mid cap blend made up of small cap and mid cap stocks. The C Fund on the other hand is entirely made up of large cap stocks. And if you want to add a fourth reason, it is really hard to time something like this. That is if you really believe small caps are going to out perform! You can cost yourself on both ends of the trade if your a week off either way. That’s OK if your trying to win a contest like the Autotracker at MYTSPTalk.com but not if your trying to make a consistent return for your retirement account. So unless the S Fund deteriorates at a rapid pace we’ll stay the course. That’s all for tonight. Have a nice evening and may God continue to bless your trades!
God bless, Scott 
***Just a reminder that you can review the performance of our allocation at the Web Site TSPTALK.com in the autotracker section under the screen name KyFan1.
I produce and publish this blog as both a ministry and for the benefit of any Federal Government Employee. This is done to offer you some guidance as to how to approach your retirement more financially successful. When it is time for you to retire, I recommend you utilize the services of a Professional Money Manager, who works with a reputable investment firm. He understands the guidance you have already received and he can manage your savings assets utilizing a more advanced investment program into the future.
If you would like to receive more information about this introduction, please feel free to contact me at KyFan1@aol.com.
Two or more negative signals or price below the 50 or 200 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a neutral signal. Any three indicators negative accompanied by both or either price below the 50 EMA or an SCTR below 40 generate a sell signal.
