Good Morning, Well this months almost over and so far the major indices are still holding modest gains in the +1.5% range. If we can manage to hold onto or add to those gains we will have achieved what a lot of folks said we could not do. We will have made a profit when there was only a 10 percent chance to do so. Like a I said to start with and will say again. I have made a profit in September a time or two since I’ve been investing. It can be done. So never say never! This morning finds the market rebounding as investors have focused once again on the AI trade. Last week they became a little shaky about the valuations in the AI sector. I have seen this before. When something is growing it will have a high valuation and the more and faster it grows the higher it will get which eventually leads to a correction. A lot of folks are looking at the AI trade and pointing to the dot com bubble in the late 90’s which led to a big selloff in 2000. I lived through that (and didn’t lose a penny) and I will tell you here and now this is not the same thing. The stocks during the dot com bubble didn’t have the earnings to back up their valuations. Many of these AI stocks do and that gives them room to run. By the matter of fact the argument could be made that AI in and of itself creates value as it makes everything more efficient. Lets be clear. It creates efficiency! No doubt there will be corrections. That is a normal function of a healthy market, but the value that AI creates cannot be clearly measured. To make it plain and simple. The AI trade cannot be measured by fundamentals only. It is like a snowball rolling downhill. It creates it’s own momentum. Technical analysis is the only way to keep up with that. Any thing else is at best an educated guess…. Moving on, the big elephant in the room this week is a possible government shutdown. This issue had to come to a head sooner or later. So I guess it might as well be now. I think the only way that we will escape this time is if congress agrees to vote to fund the government as it is and deal with all the other items separately. Heretofore, they have not been able to do that. I know a lot of you folks are concerned about this. I would be too if I were still working. The only solace I can give you at this time is that our God is bigger than all this and He will make a way for His children who seek Him. I will be in prayer for each and every one of you. God is a waymaker! Concerning the market, this issue will definitely be a drag and will cause a significant selloff, but I believe that selloff will be transitory. Even the socialists know that they will have nothing to have power over if they destroy it. So there will most likely be a contentious budget agreement in the end and I’m pretty sure it will be to no one’s liking. Our plan right now is to ignore any dip caused by a shut down as long as the mid to long term fundamentals remain healthy. Our advice is to hang onto the positions you have unless a you retiring in short order. If that is the case you might consider playing it safe in the G Fund until this is over if y0u think will need the money right away. If not, hang in there and everything should be fine!
The days trading so far is generating the following results: Our TSP allotment is slightly higher at +0.10%. No doubt it’s bearing the pressure of a possible government shutdown. But that will pass. So we’ll stay the course as long as we can. For comparison, The Dow is giving up -0.06%, the Nasdaq is higher at +0.87% (that’s that AI trade), and the S&P 500 is adding +0.39%.
S&P 500 rises as AI names rebound, EA surges on takeover: Live updates
Last weeks trading left us with the following signals: C-Hold, S-Hold, I-Hold, F-Hold. We are currently invested at 100/S. Our allocation is now +17.44% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/26/25 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 19.3722 | 20.6300 | 105.9578 | 100.1423 | 51.9693 |
| $ Change | 0.0023 | -0.0025 | 0.6245 | 0.9013 | 0.1299 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.01% | +0.59% | +0.91% | +0.25% |
| % Change week | +0.08% | -0.28% | -0.30% | -1.16% | -0.70% |
| % Change month | +0.31% | +0.88% | +2.94% | +1.95% | +2.09% |
| % Change year | +3.30% | +5.91% | +14.02% | +11.08% | +24.04% |
