09/08/14

Good Evening,

Today was another day when very little worked. The little was biotech, solar energy, and semiconductors which helped the Nasdaq outperform. Stocks were off, bonds were off, and precious metals were off, but the dollar remains hot. The UUP gained another +0.58% today with it’s 100 EMA crossing through it’s 200 EMA. It is now as solid a buy signal as you can get. How far will it go? There’s no way to tell as there are currently several external forces driving it as well as demand in the US.  The main two are the possible Scottish Bid for independence and the slumping Euro resulting from the poor European economy. The pound and the euro which are two of the dollar’s main competitors continue to weaken fueling a stronger dollar. Of course the stronger dollar changes the dynamics of our domestic markets for many reasons some of which we discussed last week. The bottom line is that we must be aware of the dollar and watch our charts for its effects on the overall market… Here’s a little bit more on that subject:

Stocks stall as the US dollar surges

Now on to the news:

Wall Street Ends Lower as Energy Sinks

 

The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 40/C, 60/S. Our allocation is now -3.02% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
09/05/14
Fund G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
Price 14.5152 16.5071 26.3157 35.8774 26.3313
$ Change 0.0008 -0.0074 0.1324 0.1238 -0.0949
% Change day +0.01% -0.04% +0.51% +0.35% -0.36%
% Change week +0.03% -0.45% +0.25% -0.06% +0.13%
% Change month +0.03% -0.45% +0.25% -0.06% +0.13%
% Change year +1.60% +4.86% +10.22% +6.55% +3.00%
  L INC L 2020 L 2030 L 2040 L 2050
Price 17.3286 22.8518 24.7953 26.3926 15.0111
$ Change 0.0094 0.0260 0.0364 0.0453 0.0277
% Change day +0.05% +0.11% +0.15% +0.17% +0.18%
% Change week +0.00% +0.03% +0.05% +0.07% +0.10%
% Change month +0.00% +0.03% +0.05% +0.07% +0.10%
% Change year +3.04% +4.85% +5.70% +6.28% +6.74%
Here’s the SPY with analysis by Arthur Hill courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
“SPY surged from 191 to 200 in August and then embarked on a consolidation (blue outline). This is a consolidation within an uptrend, which means a continuation higher is expected. The ETF has now bounced off support in the 199 area twice. A move below 198.5 would break support and reverse the short-term uptrend. Even though this would be short-term negative, I would be careful because the bigger trend is still up. The indicator window shows SPY starting to outperform TLT as the price relative (SPY:TLT ratio) moves to its highest level since late July. “
It’s always good to see technical analysis from another perspective. Some of the things that Arthur Hill watches are a little different than what we do, but they are very interesting. That said, my analysis is more in line with Carl Swenlin and James DePorre. Speaking of my analysis, the current weakness falls in line with what I have seen on my charts. I expect more of it in during this month. Both TSP and AMP were off today, but then so was about everything else. We’ll see if they improve tomorrow. Have a great evening.
God bless,
Scott8-)

 

 



Written By

Scott Grimes

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