Good Evening,
This was definitely not a good day for the market. Both TSP and AMP were off again today. The excuse was Apple, but our charts have been predicting this downturn for a few weeks now. That is no surprise, but what we don’t know is how deep it will go. The result was another day when nothing worked. Stocks, bonds, and precious metals all suffered equally. Of course, currency fluctuation and most notably the strength of the dollar contributed to the increased volatility. I have included a little extra news tonight as it takes some more reading to get a real handle on what’s actually going on. This is probably one of the most complex markets that I have ever dealt with……On to the news.
Stocks get dropped as Apple disappoints
Stocks Post Losses for a 2nd Day, Apple Shares Slip
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 40/C, 60/S. Our allocation is now -3.12% on the year not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/08/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5178 | 16.5064 | 26.2394 | 35.8814 | 26.217 |
| $ Change | 0.0026 | -0.0007 | -0.0763 | 0.0040 | -0.1143 |
| % Change day | +0.02% | +0.00% | -0.29% | +0.01% | -0.43% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | +0.00% | -0.29% | +0.01% | -0.43% |
| % Change month | +0.05% | -0.46% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.30% |
| % Change year | +1.62% | +4.86% | +9.90% | +6.57% | +2.55% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3211 | 22.8201 | 24.7515 | 26.3401 | 14.9767 |
| $ Change | -0.0075 | -0.0317 | -0.0438 | -0.0525 | -0.0344 |
| % Change day | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.23% |
| % Change week | -0.04% | -0.14% | -0.18% | -0.20% | -0.23% |
| % Change month | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.13% | -0.13% | -0.13% |
| % Change year | +3.00% | +4.70% | +5.51% | +6.06% | +6.49% |
Here’s what the SPY looked like today. Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com with analysis by Erin Swenlin Heim .
“Today’s low dropped slightly below the horizontal support line drawn from the July top. Support held but it likely won’t continue to. The PMO has topped in overbought territory and is very close to a negative crossover. We saw an increase in SPX volume on a down day which is bearish.”“Conclusion: Indicators across the board are now bearish. Initiation climaxes were detected in the ultra-short term and short term. While price was able to close above horizontal support today, it probably won’t hold up long. Indicators tell us to expect more decline.”
I agree. I would not post it if I did not at least partially agree with the analysis. In this case I totally agree. There are only so many ways to say it, but you have seen my charts and analysis in recent weeks and now you are seeing hers. We still have a buy signal in both the C and S Funds and we won’t hit the eject button until we see a sell. Why not, you say? That would be basing our decision on what we think might happen instead of what is actually happening. Our system is a reactive system and is not based on prognostication. It’s true that means that we will actually experience some down side before we get out, but it also means that we will remain in to get all the gains. I’ll be the first to admit that has not been the best philosophy this year. However, it has been consistently the best throughout the years and I will gladly trade one off year for an average of close to 20% per year over the long haul any day! No changes tonight. We’ll stay put until the signals change. May God continue to bless your trades! Have a nice evening.
God bless,
Scott 
