Good Evening,
Stocks started off on the down side but ended up mixed after the dip buyers stepped in and brought them off their lows. Bonds were flat and precious metals were down. Small caps had the best day of the bunch, but the major indices failed to show it. TSP posted a gain; AMP was off, as it was not a good day for defensive investments.
Stocks End Mixed; Health Care Stocks Slump
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 40/C, 60/S. Our allocation is now -3.56% on the year not including the days gains. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/10/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5195 | 16.4525 | 26.1661 | 35.6776 | 26.0331 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0285 | 0.0976 | 0.1354 | -0.0269 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.17% | +0.37% | +0.38% | -0.10% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.33% | -0.57% | -0.56% | -1.13% |
| % Change month | +0.06% | -0.78% | -0.32% | -0.62% | -1.00% |
| % Change year | +1.63% | +4.52% | +9.60% | +5.96% | +1.83% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3044 | 22.7643 | 24.6735 | 26.2441 | 14.9153 |
| $ Change | 0.0077 | 0.0257 | 0.0365 | 0.0458 | 0.0292 |
| % Change day | +0.04% | +0.11% | +0.15% | +0.17% | +0.20% |
| % Change week | -0.14% | -0.38% | -0.49% | -0.56% | -0.64% |
| % Change month | -0.14% | -0.35% | -0.44% | -0.50% | -0.54% |
| % Change year | +2.90% | +4.44% | +5.18% | +5.68% | +6.06% |
Here’s what the C Fund looked like today: Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com.
The C Fund continues to hang in there with a buy signal in three out of the four major indicators that we watch. Price tested resistance at the 1990 level and remains nicely above the 20 EMA. The PMO is flat and could turn either way. The Williams percent R has turned up which is short term bullish. All in all the chart is in good shape. My only concern at this point is the same as it has been in most of 2014. The chart is extended, but it is no different than it has been for some time. It is pretty much the same for all the charts, both equity based and defensive. That alone should tell you that sooner or later something has to give. I’m expecting a downturn, but the market could easily make a run up and set more records before that happens.
We’ll continue to hold steady in TSP until the charts tell us to do otherwise. As far as AMP, it is tempting to sell our defensive allocation and move on, but those charts look to be setting up for another run and to sell prematurely would be to miss out on that run. Of course, when charts are extended to the downside, there is always a chance that they will break through lower resistance. If and when that happens, that will be the time to sell. That’s all for tonight. God bless and have a nice evening.
Scott
