Good Evening, Friday the market crashed on hawkish statements made by Fed members and today it rallied on dovish statements made by others. The market started off slightly negative in the morning, but reversed and moved higher after speeches by two prominent Fed members. You can read the details in the news link below.
The days trading left us with the following results: Our TSP allotment moved slightly higher with a gain of +0.08%. For comparison the Dow added +1.32%, The Nasdaq +1.68%, and the S&P 500 was 1.47%. While the major indices had nice gains, they failed to reclaim all their sizeable losses from Friday.
S&P 500 racks up sharpest rise since July
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Neutral, I-Neutral, F-Neutral. I must say that 2016 has generated the most neutral signals that I can ever remember. Of course that’s a result of the tight trading range that we have been in most of the year. We are currently invested at 100/F, but are looking for a good entry point into equities in October. Our allocation is now +1.25% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/09/16 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.0983 | 17.8853 | 29.1464 | 37.8641 | 24.5743 |
| $ Change | 0.0006 | -0.0544 | -0.7325 | -1.1269 | -0.5852 |
| % Change day | +0.00% | -0.30% | -2.45% | -2.89% | -2.33% |
| % Change week | +0.03% | -0.39% | -2.36% | -2.54% | -1.00% |
| % Change month | +0.04% | -0.53% | -1.95% | -1.53% | +0.44% |
| % Change year | +1.23% | +5.49% | +5.75% | +7.46% | +1.99% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 18.1942 | 23.9741 | 26.0768 | 27.7426 | 15.7263 |
| $ Change | -0.0931 | -0.2678 | -0.4217 | -0.5245 | -0.3378 |
| % Change day | -0.51% | -1.10% | -1.59% | -1.86% | -2.10% |
| % Change week | -0.39% | -0.87% | -1.27% | -1.48% | -1.68% |
| % Change month | -0.23% | -0.52% | -0.75% | -0.88% | -0.99% |
| % Change year | +2.37% | +3.30% | +4.04% | +4.41% | +4.66% |
Now lets take a look at the charts. All signals are annotated with green circles. If you click on the charts they will become larger.
C Fund: Priced reclaimed it’s lower trend line today, barely. The Wms%R is predicting more upside.
S Fund: The S Fund remains in pretty good shape with price moving back into the middle of it’s established ascending channel. The Money flow index and volume indicator show that a lot of money continues to move into this fund. This is all supported by an SCTR that has remained fairly steady at 78.8. The S fund remains the best of our equity based funds.
I Fund: A lot like the C Fund, price barley reclaimed it’s lower trend line. The Wms%R bounced indicating that some more upside is likely in the cards. Also of note, the SCTR is trending up indicating that this fund is improving verses other investments in it’s class.
F Fund: The F Fund is not very strong right now as indicated by an SCTR of only 20.0. Most of the indicators are reaching overbought extremes so our hope here is that the fund will bottom and trend up into the coming month as we look for a good entry point into equities for the fall run. Of course the election could always throw a wrench into our plans so keep an eye on your charts!
We continue to try to survive through the worst seasonal period for stocks in the F Fund. I’ll be the first to admit that it is not performing very well. However, one has to only look back to the Friday’s volatility in equities to know why we are trying to wait this period out in bonds. All I can say at this time is to stick with your plan. monitor the charts, and put your faith in God. He has never let us down! Give Him all the praise. See you tomorrow!
