Good Evening, The Dow and the S&P 500 both posted new records today, but only after the market surged in the last ten minutes of trading and then only barely. Do you remember that computer trading we were talking about a few blogs ago? Yeah that’s right, no emotion, just cold deliberate buying and you can bet whatever the machines do will prey on human traders. The only way you can beat the market nowadays is to think like a machine and that means to lose your emotions. For those of you who are Star Trek fans you must trade like Mr. Spock! If you can do that you’ll have success. If you listen to the hype that’s going on you can bet that at some point the machines are going to move the market in the exact opposite direction than your emotions tell you it will go. You say, but Scott, the market is toppy. Yep, and it’s been that way since 2010. Sure what goes up must come down but it sure ain’t coming down until the machines decide to send it there. As long as they are programmed to buy dips the market will reverse and head up each time there is a dip. The machines will wait until everyone is running for the hills and then bam, they will buy at a discount. Then they will run it up and sell again when things are back in the green just to start the cycle over. Rinse and repeat. That is the reason that we’ve remained in such a tight trading range for so long. As I mentioned earlier, the great trader James DePorre has a theory about how the market will finally go down and I think he’s probably right. Basically he says that right now the machines are programmed to buy the news events and that makes sense if you think about it. He thinks that the market will finally head back down someday when it begins drifting down and there are no news events for the machines to buy. Personally, my guess is that it will all gain steam when the machines masters then reprogram them to short the market to take advantage of the falling prices. So if the theory holds true then some day the market will head down on no news at all and with no reason at all. Now, if I have you totally worried then don’t be. Markets just don’t suddenly fall apart, topping is a process. What you have to do is watch your charts and make your trading decisions based on the price action and nothing else. If you do that and trust in God you will be fine!
The days trading left us with the following results. Our TSP allotment gave up -0.54%. For comparison, the Dow added +0.18%, the Nasdaq +0.09%, and the S&P 500 +0.08%. That’s OK, we’ll get ours on another day….I thank God for the year he’s given us so far!
The days action left us with the following signals: C-Buy, S-Buy, I-Buy, F-Neutral. We are currently invested at 100/I. Our allotment is now +14.51% on the year not including the days results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/12/17 | Prior Prices | ||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 15.4336 | 18.0897 | 34.9188 | 44.8229 | 29.4743 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | -0.0295 | 0.1191 | 0.2639 | 0.0722 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | -0.16% | +0.34% | +0.59% | +0.25% |
| % Change week | +0.02% | -0.45% | +1.43% | +1.72% | +0.86% |
| % Change month | +0.07% | -0.18% | +1.05% | +1.09% | +2.10% |
| % Change year | +1.62% | +3.68% | +13.11% | +9.33% | +19.81% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 19.1917 | 26.133 | 29.4311 | 31.8456 | 18.3396 |
| $ Change | 0.0125 | 0.0330 | 0.0619 | 0.0795 | 0.0529 |
| % Change day | +0.07% | +0.13% | +0.21% | +0.25% | +0.29% |
| % Change week | +0.25% | +0.48% | +0.79% | +0.93% | +1.07% |
| % Change month | +0.32% | +0.55% | +0.86% | +1.00% | +1.14% |
| % Change year | +4.24% | +6.76% | +9.67% | +11.07% | +12.34% |
Our job is still to stay at the wheel and drive the car. The wheel of course is our charts and the car we are driving is currently the I fund. That’s all for tonight. Have a great evening and I’ll see you tomorrow.
