Good Evening,
It was definitely a bad day for stocks. The dip buyers made very little effort to take us off the days lows which probably means we are in for some more down side. The S Fund generated a sell signal so we will be making a change to our TSP allotment.
S&P 500 Falls by Largest Margin in Nearly Seven Weeks
The day’s action left us with the following signals: C-Neutral, S-Sell, I-Sell, F-Sell. We are currently invested at 40/C, 60/S. However, due to the sell signal in the S Fund we will be putting in an interfund transfer for 60/G, 40/C. Our allotment is now -3.91% on the year, not including today’s results. Here are the latest posted results:
| 09/19/14 | |||||
| Fund | G Fund | F Fund | C Fund | S Fund | I Fund |
| Price | 14.5272 | 16.4305 | 26.3707 | 35.2808 | 26.0002 |
| $ Change | 0.0009 | 0.0346 | -0.0123 | -0.2504 | -0.0291 |
| % Change day | +0.01% | +0.21% | -0.05% | -0.70% | -0.11% |
| % Change week | +0.04% | +0.18% | +1.27% | -0.67% | +0.04% |
| % Change month | +0.11% | -0.92% | +0.46% | -1.72% | -1.13% |
| % Change year | +1.68% | +4.38% | +10.45% | +4.78% | +1.70% |
| L INC | L 2020 | L 2030 | L 2040 | L 2050 | |
| Price | 17.3245 | 22.8026 | 24.7121 | 26.2779 | 14.933 |
| $ Change | -0.0027 | -0.0173 | -0.0277 | -0.0378 | -0.0252 |
| % Change day | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.17% |
| % Change week | +0.18% | +0.33% | +0.39% | +0.41% | +0.44% |
| % Change month | -0.02% | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.37% | -0.42% |
| % Change year | +3.02% | +4.62% | +5.34% | +5.81% | +6.18% |
Today was ugly so expect another 1% to be dropped off of these results when they are updated.
Here’s what the S&P 500/ C Fund looked like today. Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
The C Fund continues to weather the storm with a solid neutral signal at this time. The PMO and MAC D indicators are currently in a negative crossovers annotated by circles. The price continues to trade within the established upward ascending channel. Lower resistance is currently set at around 1988.00. Should that be breached, the next established resistance is at the August low around 1990. The Williams %R is falling which indicates that the current dip will likely continue.
It should be noted that the FED bond purchasing program ends in October. However, it is likely that it has already been priced into the market. As far as the current dip goes, I really don’t look for it to be any different than the others we have had this year. Why, you ask??? For the simple reason that interest rates are still at historic lows, which has had a lot to do with fueling the rally. A couple other tidbits of information to consider: The best seasonality of the year starts in November. The 10 week, 20 week, and 9 month cycle lows all occur in the first half of November.
***************************** CYCLE PROJECTIONS *****************************
Last Next Estimated Estimated Estimated
Cycle Projected Cycle Top Cycle Cycle Top
PRICE Count Low Cycle Low Bull Bias Mid-Point Bear Bias
------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
5-Week Cycle......: 09/10/14 10/14/14 10/02/14 09/27/14 09/21/14
10-Week Cycle.....: 09/10/14 11/17/14 10/25/14 10/14/14 10/02/14
20-Week Cycle.....: 06/26/14 11/10/14 09/25/14 09/02/14 08/10/14
9-Month Cycle.....: 02/05/14 11/06/14 08/06/14 06/22/14 05/07/14
Finally, small caps traditionally outperform large caps 75-100% of the time in the months of November and December. Put all this together and there is a high probability of a nice run into the new year. So hang on to that S fund money because that’ll be the first one you want to buy when this dip over. My expectation is to be fully invested going into Christmas. Of course, I’ll end with my usual disclaimer that I will take what the charts give me. That’s all for tonight. May God continue to bless your trades. Keep praying!
God bless,
Scott
